Archive for November, 2017

Timing this Market

Wednesday, November 1st, 2017

November 1, 2017

First things first.  The market ( SPY etf ) closed October 31, 2017  at $257.15.

This is 6.29% above SPY’s 200 day moving average which is $241.93.

This means, sail on .  The skies are clear and our 200-day model barometer is not signaling a change in the weather…yet.

I have read that the stock market spends much more time in an uptrend than in a downtrend. Bull markets have an average duration of 97 months while Bear markets average 18 months.  That doesn’t mean Bear markets aren’t violent.  It took SPY a long time to come back from the 56% knockdown of the last Bear market.

The current Buy Signal for SPY is 401 days old.  This was preceded by a sell signal which lasted three months and before that a buy signal which lasted 931 days.  So,  those who have followed the model have enjoyed almost all its profitability and would have avoided a serious downdraft had the sell signal been more than a head fake..

Today starts the beginning of my investment year.  I am always mindful of “Play until May then Go Away”.

So, with the SPY model positive and Obama’s low-interest rates,  I feel very good about everything except the possibility of the market failing to meet Wall Street’s expectations for a tax cut and higher earnings due to developments in Washington DC.

Richard Maurice Gore.