SPY Strategy for 2017

January 1, 2017

Looking forward to 2017.

I have 4,905 shares of SPY at a cost basis of $203.87. SPY presently $223.53

But, I’m at a fork in the road in determining how I follow SPY (Buy and Hold or follow the 200 Moving Average Model) and then, whether or not I should consider including other passive index funds which may do better than SPY.

Last year SPY Buy and Hold was the way to go… Except for IWM ( 21,6% which is twice as volatile )

If you had bought and held SPY, your shares would have appreciated by 9.64%, excluding dividends

If you had followed the 200 day Moving Average Model and exited December 31, 2015 and repurchased at the March 31, buy signal, you would now have 4,785 shares worth $ 1,069,591 plus dividends, not 4,905 shares worth 1,096,415, plus dividends.

As a separate test, I intend to follow both Buy and Hold and the 200 day average Model in 2017. I will take half the $116,500 market value and divide it in two,$ 558,250 each. Part A will be Buy and Hold. Part B will follow the Model.

But, I need to wait for the next Sell and then Buy Signals ( earliest sell January 31 ) to implement the plan.

Here is how other passive index ETFs compared with SPY over 12 months…including dividends.

SPY…12%,

Russell 1000 ( SPY plus next group of 501-1000 ) 12%,

IWM ( Russell 2000, (1000 -3000 ) 21.6% ( the generals are following the infantry..supposedly a good sign )

Dow …16.4 %

Richard Maurice Gore

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