Sell Alert – Its Almost May

April 23, 2012

Its almost May – I think I’ll leave the market a week early because we are almost at the end of our normally positive  November to May run  and I don’t see any compelling reason to hang around and needlessly risk capital..

Plus….

I don’t see a definite positive market trend

Too much European worry overhang

China  engine not humming.

Mixed bag of USA earnings

Gold sending a disinflation  signal. 

Housing re-sales are down and there is plenty of foreclosure material out there.

Apple is our canary.  Think I just heard a cough. Watching closely.

The last week of April last year was the 2011 high for the market.  I overstayed my welcome only 10 days and was lucky to escape with 11% instead of 14% profit.   That is how fast the climate can change.

We are now entering the May / October  danger zone.

As of  Today ..

Realized profits….$272 since Jan 3

Dividends…………$4,368

Total Profits on Jan3 / Feb 10 Portfolio ….$ 4,638 on Average Investment of $800,000 –

Equals 0.57% profit

I almost would have done just as well to have kept my capital in a Chase Savings account.

So, I’m out of the market with my capital intact.  I’ll wait patiently ( grrr )  for a compelling reason to re-enter the market.  But,  it better be a very good reason if its after May 1.

I keep reminding myself –  its better to burn capital for living expenses and NOT lose in the market  than it is to burn capital for living expenses AND lose market capital.

I’ll be working on putting together a new defensive interest / dividend oriented portfolio that can work till I can assess the late November market climate.  I’ll give you all a heads up on what I’m doing just before I do it. 

Richard M. Gore

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