“PLAY TILL MAY” – SELL ALERT MAY 16-2011

As of the market close Friday, May 13, 2011 we are ahead for the year starting May 17,2010 by $116,221 ( based on a $ 1 million portfolio ) as follows;

May 17,2010 to November 4,2010………$49,300

Novenber 4, 2010 to May 13, 2011……. $49,900 ( unrealized )

Tweak Profit ………. $ 1,693 ( realized )

Dividend since November 5,2011 ………$15,228

Total for year $ 116,121…….11.61%

The market has taken back almost half of our profits in one week. There are lots of reasons offered, european debt, the end of QE2, the commodities market reaction to the drastically raised margin requirement on silver etc

But, to my mind the trump card is the ” Play Till May ” adage

According to a well known and respected market almanac, if you started with $10,000 in 1950 and invested each year only between May 1 and November 1, you would now have approximately $500 less than when you started in 1950.

On the other hand, if you took the same $10,000 and invested only between November 1 and May 1, each year you would now have approximately $ 530,000.

I leave it to others to explain why. Suffice it to say I would need compelling reasons to be in the market between now and the November elections.   I don’t see any compelling reasons – what I see is a new wave of uncertainty.

So….I will be exiting my November 4, 2010 Portfolio over these next days and accumulating cash to invest in a much more defensive portfolio until a positive theme develops.

I realize I may miss a major move up, but my first priority is to be prudent – protect working capital and not swing for the fences. I guess you could call me an ” on base percentage ” kind of guy.

Regards to you all and I’m here ready to respond to your ideas.

Stay tuned….

Rich, Richie, Dick, RMG

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