Month End SPY Signal, June 2016

June 30, 2016

 

If I had told you last Friday, after the BREXIT announcement, that SPY would close June above it’s 200 day moving average of price, would you have believed me ? Was the sky falling in, or were there international money funds just trying to scare the hell out of you so that they could  pick up your shares at a more reasonable prices.?

As it turns out, the sky isn’t falling, exactly, but if you will look down and ahead , it would be fair to conclude the road may be littered  with potholes sufficiently deep to ruin you low profile rims, if not your portfolio.

On one side of the equation, you have low interest rates which may remain unchanged into 2017….plus an earnings season which gives every indication of being positive for stocks, well, some stocks.  On the other side of the argument, you have,  BREXIT and the potential for a  level of  international political and economic uncertainty that will make the dollar a safe haven for the forseeable future.  And that means it will be tough for dollar exports and inward remittances of overseas profits which need to get translated into dollars.  I’ve concluded, for me its best to stay with USA companies whose profits are mainly driven by USA revenues.

My lineup includes SPY  and Put writing involving July $200 and August $180 contracts.

ETFs  in descending order of investment: IWM, MDY, SPY, SDY, VNQ, XLU, ITA and XBI

Equities in descending order of dollars invested: T. VZ, NOC, TASR, AMZN,DLTR,FB, MCD, BAESY, SNE

Utilities: ED, EXC, AEP

If you had ignored the December 31, sell signal your $1 million invested in SPY  ( Shares  4905   ) would now be worth $1,027,744

If you had acted on the sell signal and repurchase signal,  you would now have ( Shares 4786   )  and they would be worth $1,002,811

The next buy / sell signal for SPY will be generated at the close of business July 31

 

Richard Maurice Gore

 

 

Leave a Reply