Get Ready for Gold ( GLD )

February 18,2014

I suppose the snow has something to do with my thoughts about the market.  Visualizing the snow flakes as dollars falling from the sky somehow energizes me.

GLD Alert:

The ETF ” GLD ” crossed above its 200 day moving average at the close February 14.

If you were to buy today, and sell when GLD violated its 200 day moving average, back testing indicates a losing trade 77.3% of the time ( going back 10 years ). There were 17 losing round trips of a total of 22 round trips.

BUT, if you waited until month end to buy, and the price of GLD was above its 200 day moving average at month end,  you would have won on 2 round trips and lost on 2 round trips.  The winners were 37% ( 482 days ) and 75% ( 756 days ) .  The losers were 4.25% ( 42 days ) and 1.84% ( 102 days ).

Based on the above ( with no guarantee of repeat performance ) it would seem that it would be preferable to wait until March 1 to see whether GLD ( $ 127.15 – current price ) closes above its 200 day moving average ( presently $126.47 ) before investing.  I will invest if such is the case.

QQEW / Zack Portfolio alert-   be advised , I will not be investing today as  I have decided to run this as a phantom, watch list  portfolio instead of investing immediately. I’ll be tracking closely and will advise when I decide to implement .  As I explained previously,  I can best be characterized as a hungry ( but nervous ) deer rather than as a bull or bear.

Richard Maurice Gore


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