Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

September 2018

Thursday, September 20th, 2018

Buy signal still in effect till  close September 30

MY Matt

Sunday, August 26th, 2018

MY MATT

Sunday, August 26th, 2018

After visiting her sister Lilly, my Aunt Rose would stop by our Throggs Neck bungalow to vist my mother.  Often, she would express how worried she was about Lilly  smacking  her son Matty ( born August 1924 ) . ” She won’t leave that boy alone. She is after him all the time and smacks him for everything and anything. ”

As it turned out, my Aunt Rose was underestimating Lilly’s talent as a carrot and stick motivator. If you followed my Aunt Lilly’s suggested regimen and bought into her pep talks, you could begin to think of yourself as special to the point where there was no way you could imagine not measuring up to her opinion of you as the perfect boy.  Thats how she got me to stop sucking my thumb and wetting the bed. It took her only one week to get results, the week my parents were away finding my sister Beth in that hospital garbage can.   My parents had been working on me for a year without  results. Now,  imagine the attention you would get as Lilly’s  son , 24 / 7, fifty two weeks a year! For sure you would see both the carrot and the stick.

Anyway, Aunt Lilly succeeded beyond everyone’s expectations with Matty.  Matt became an exceptional student and an enthusiastic  athlete who totally loved and doted on his parents.  He was accepted at Fordham Prep, a Jesuit Prep school,  on the Fordham University campus which was where Vince Lombardi acquired his work ethic as one of the  ” Seven Blocks of Granite ” for the  nationally  ranked Fordham University football team.

Matty was at the Prep while Vince Lombardi  was at the College.  Same kind of discipline required because Fordham Prep was no country club, with two hours of Latin daily in addition to either Greek or German. Miss two days of vocabulary and watch the train pull away with you standing on the ” dunce” platform. In addition, Matty was a starting  infielder for  the varsity baseball team.

When Matt graduated the Prep  in 1942,  he was primed to be swallowed up by the USA draft, the World War II  being only six months old.

Aunt Lilly approached her brother Vince seeking a draft exemption for Matt as a welder on the ” Liberty “Ships”   he built as General Superintendent of  the East Coast Shipyards,  at Bayonne, NJ.   The problem  was my Uncle Vince had enlisted in Navy at fourteen ( ! )  and didn’t think an exemption would be good for Matt as a man.  So, he turned my Aunt Lilly down. Nothing was ever said to me, but to the mother of an only child I can see how  the turn down could easily have seemed like her brother had handed down a potential  death sentence to her son.

That didn’t faze Matty.  He applied and was accepted for an accelerated 15 month course in Marine Engineering taught at Fort Schuyler..  At that point, Fort Schuyler  was the  Officers Candidate School for  the US Merchant Marine,  and if Matt could complete the course he would become an Ensign in the US Merchant Marine, and then a Lieutenant JG in command of an engine room on one of my uncle Vince’s Liberty Ships….at age nineteen!

I have all of Matt’s letters home to his mom and dad throughout his three year  service  including how the course was so accelerated he had no choice but to study nights under the covers with a flashlight,  after lights out..

At around this time, my Aunt Lilly began referring to Matty as ” My Matt “.  To me, that is the ultimate acceptance by a mom or a girlfriend or a wife ! )  I was too young to appreciate it at 7 years old but I was already being  compared to Matt .  Maybe my mother had some  ” My Richard ” thoughts  incubating .  But,   my little sister was taken from that hospital garbage pail just in time  ( 1944 ) to take that type of pressure off me.

As time went on, Matt graduated and was assigned duty on ships running  Hitler’ submarine s gauntlet in the North Atlantic,  sometimes on convoys all the way to Russia.  He sailed to Murmansk, Rio de Janiero,  Scotland,  England etc.  and once invited me,  at age 8, on board his ship, anchored at Fulton Street,  for a stem to stern solo  tour just hours before weighing anchor and  sailing through the Narrows, outward bound for God knows where,  at what risk.  But, a smile never seemed to leave Matty’s face and, as a young Officer he seemed to be just as  popular with his  shipmates as he was at the Prep and on the baseball field …..and with the girls..

 

matt

 

The summer the war ended , Matt  began working  under a union permit as a wire  lather on apartment houses , reinforcing floors with steel rods tied at intersections to accept  wet poured concrete .  His parents were waiting for a time slot  for him to start at Fordham University.  And, because they didn’t want him to waste time his parents enrolled him at Delahanty Institute in a course for reading building plans and estimating costs.  It was thought he could possibly join my Uncle Harry in his construction business at some point down the line.

For me to tell you that my cousin Matt was my inspirational  and aspirational role model  is a gross understatement.  And, he was some tough act to follow !

He really loved to  play baseball ( we both were Giant fans ),  and every Sunday most of the family, including my mother and father and I,  would go to watch him play short stop for the Throggs Neck Mohawks .  These guys were age 22 or so,   but mature beyond their years because of the war,  They played teams from different parts of the Bronx, and the games were hard fought with lots of betting. And, you could sit right there, up close, and really see and hear a pitched ball disappear into a catcher’s mitt almost as if you were at the plate,  batting.  Sunny, dusty, grimy, sweaty , the way the game was meant to be played and the way ice cream was meant to be eaten.

Matt had dated a girl, Virginia Green all during the war . I had to march in line with my classmates  past her house on the way from daily Mass ( ugh ) to my schoolyard ( Saint Benedict ) and often  she and her mother would come to their upstairs  window and smile and wave to me as I walked past.  I really liked her and I thought she was beautiful and I was looking forward to the day when she and Matt would get married and we three could be friends.gin0001.

But something was going on. Aunt Lilly wanted ” My Matt”  to finish college ( 4 years )  before he got married.  And, Ginny wanted to get married ASAP because she had patiently waited for him all during the war and, though engaged,  all her girlfriends were getting married.

The next thing I knew my parents were waking me up on Sunday night August 23, 1946 to explain to me that Matty and Ginny had been in a terrible accident and that a babysitter for my little sister Beth would be arriving momentarily.  My parents weren’t home the next morning when I got up, so I got dressed and walked up to the candy and grocery  stores at the intersection of Bruckner Blvd. and Tremont Avenue  to pick up a newspaper  bring home  some breakfast rolls.

As I approached the corner,  a little girl pointed me out to a man saying ” that’s his cousin “.  The man came up to me and asked me for the latest news on my cousin and I said all I know is that he was in an accident last night.  Then he said… ” your cousin wasn’t in an accident He was shot by his girlfriend and he’s in critical condition at Fordham Hospital.”  What???!!!.  I didn’t believe it ! Then he introduced himself as a reporter for the New York Daily News.  Very tough news for a just turned  ten year old to comprehend.  I was confused. I ran home hoping to learn what had really happened. My mother was home  and she  told me she didn’t want me up all night worrying,  so she had to tell me  a white lie.  And, that we were all going to the hospital.

What actually happened was that the day before,  Sunday,  my Aunt Lilly wanted Matt to play in the scheduled double header and then go out to dinner with his parents….I assume Ginny was invited but these details are fuzzy.  All Aunt Rose kept saying for years after was …” Why did Lilly need to control him so.?  Why did she need to interfere ? . Why couldn’t she just let the boy have his own life ? ”

At about 10:00pm  Sunday night , Ginny walked the three blocks from her house to Matt’s house, threw a pebble at his 2nd floor  bedroom window and told him she had his bathing suit.( we all had been at Compo Beach, Westport, Ct. Saturday afternoon ). My Uncle Harry was having a beer  at  the Pub just around the corner , on  Tremont Avenue..   My Aunt Lilly was already in bed.

Matty told Ginny he would meet her at the side door which was on a landing which either led down to the basement or up to the kitchen.  Matt opened the door for Ginny and then turned to head up to the kitchen assuming she would follow him.  Instead, she pulled her fathers duty revolver ( he was a policemen ) and shot Matty once through the back and then turned the gun on herself, shooting herself in the head.  It was later speculated that she had enough bullets to have one ready for my Aunt Lilly if she had been present.  But, that’s pure conjecture.

The 45th Precinct was just across the street from my aunts house and it wasn’t long before police were on  the scene.  An ambulance arrived from Fordham Hospital and it had only one bed.  Matt insisted that Ginny be given the bed and he rode the half hour to the hospital sitting up on a metal ambulance  bench.

He was taken to emergency surgery and stabilized.  He kept asking about Ginnys’s condition, but she was already dead and nobody wanted to break the news to him in his condition. For sure,  I know they loved each other .  Then why ???    Nobody had any answers except that Ginny was probably despondent, had probably given Matt a marriage ultimatum at some point during the weekend , and somehow they broke off the engagement.

We were at the hospital almost non stop for three days.  Then,  we were told Matt had caught pneumonia.  These were the days before antibiotics. When I,  my Aunt Rose and my mother took a lunch break at a nearby restaurant,  and were walking  back to the hospital.  Suddenly  we could see my Aunt Lilly staggering down the hospitals steps and sink to her knees.  Her Matt was gone.

Think Romeo and Juliette was sad ?  Welcome to another Tenety tragedy.  The Tenetys had  the 1940s version of Kennedy hard luck.

Whenever I listen to  the song  Bye Bye Miss American Pie and the music stopping,  I think of my cousin Matt and Ginny and the  the sudden end to their lives.

that’s when the music stopped for me.

Richard Gore

 

Matthew Kingston,  August 13, 1924…..August 26, 1946

With his mother Lillian Tenety Kingston at Fort Schuyler, Merchant Marine Academy, Throggs Neck, NY

 

 

 

 

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August 1 Action Signal

Wednesday, August 1st, 2018

August 1, 2018

 

SPY still on a Buy Signal after 588 days and total return of  43.02%.

Next update September 1, 2018.

See archives going back to August 2010 from additional comments

Richard Maurice Gore

 

Methodology Review- SPY 200 Day Month End Model

Saturday, June 30th, 2018

June 30, 2018 for July 1, 2018

I’ve been publishing this blog monthly since August 2010.

The purpose was and is to help protect those in the IRA jungle who have a small to medium nest egg at risk.

I don’t have a license to give advice because a license would give me the legal right to monetize my ” expertise “, and that is not what this is about.

What I can say to justify my opinions is that I have had a formal education in economics and finance including graduate school, three years assisting Wall Street ” higher ups ” focusing on Africa and the Middle East, two years as an overseas operations officer of a global bank, 20 years as CEO of a company founded by my father, and 20 years as the USA Country Manager and CEO of the USA subsidiary of an Italian Conglomerate with branches and subsidiaries worldwide.

That being said, my ” expertise “, in my opinion,  boils down to my confidence that I know the difference between real gold and fools gold.

I recognize that your career may not have given you the inclination and expertise to research what you should know before you put your money into an investment idea.

My first piece of advice would be to eliminate the fees and commissions of as many investment professionals as possible. They are not worth the money unless they prove consistently that they can beat the “market “.  And, what is the market?

For you, the market should be, in my opinion, a basket of stocks which contain the 500 largest companies in the USA stock market.  The basket trades as one stock, SPY and you don’t pay 500 commissions to buy 500 stocks. You pay between $5 and $10 per trade irrespective of whether you buy 1000 shares of SPY  or 10 shares of SPY.

You begin by opening an account at a discount brokerage such as Charles Schwab or TD Ameritrade. The account should give you the option of moving money between their low-interest Money Market Fund and actual investments. one of which is in the symbol SPY.

Now here is where it gets interesting.  Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway and John Bogle CEO of Vanguard say invest in a passive index fund or ETF such as SPY and leave it there.  This investment is in the market and carries market risk.  If you wander into no man’s land and purchase individual stocks or a managed investment, you are adding layers of ” specific risk” on top of your market risk.   Buffett and Bogle say don’t go there. They say that a passive ( not managed ) index investment in the S&P 500 ( SPY ) is all you will ever need.

If you followed their advice without considering whether, at the time of your investment, the market is at low tide or high tide, you are accepting ” timing risk” .

Better to break your investment capital into parts (10 to 20 ) and average your cost to achieve a rational investment price per share.  The goal here is to adhere to rule #1 ….don’t lose money. I don’t care whether the consensus is that the market is on a straight up trajectory. The opposite could be true.

Now, here is where Buffett, Bogle and I part company. I  say it is possible to time the market providing your timing mechanism is not your emotions. During the last major downturn, if you had just held SPY, you would have lost 55% of your money at the bottom.  Very difficult to sit through that without panicking and exiting with a big realized loss. If you held tight for the ride,  you would have had to wait almost 10 years before surfacing with zero realized gain.  Not my idea of a good time.

I subscribe to a backtesting service which allowed me to track SPY from January 1, 2000 to the present. During that time you would have been involved in only six trades of which 5 were winners.

The model I follow which I refer to as the  SPY , month end, 200 day moving average model.

Underpinning the model is the acceptance that you will probably leave some money on the table ( not a lot ) at market tops and bottoms. And, there is the possibility of being caught in a straight down plunge, But, you should never be caught in a grinding downdraft which a bear market typically goes through.

An important factor is that you are allowed to trade only at month end.  To do otherwise, according to the model will involve you in a lot of whipsaws and less acceptable results.  By following the model, history has demonstrated you would have made considerably more money since 2000 than ” Buy and Hold.

SPY is currently in the 566th day of an uptrend which has returned 24% per annum, ( 37.71% since its last buy signal, March 31, 2016).  Want more return than that.  Go ahead. Wander into Wall Street’s No Man’s Land where the counterparty in every trade probably knows more than you and, in fact, may have an edge.

Summary: We continue on a BUY signal for SPY . If you are new to this model I would either be patient and keep my investment in the money market ( park ) until you get an exit signal. You would re-enter ” all in ” at the next buy signal following the exit signal.  I’ve supplied enough data here to allow you to make your next decision a safe decision. And none of the possible choices involve you taking on the Specific Risk of individual stocks

 

Richard Maurice Gore

 

 

547 And Counting

Thursday, May 31st, 2018

May 31, 2018

Following SPY can show you how boring investing can be, even if all hell is breaking out over Italian debt, tariffs etc.

That’s how it goes with SPY.  You can just buy and hold knowing every portfolio manager and hedge fund analyst is breaking his butt just to equal your performance.  Why pay anyone a commission or a handling fee when you can own a passive investment that will perform as well as the USA stock market’s top 500 stocks and trades as if every symbol in the market was compressed into one share.  You can trade as little as one share or a thousand for the brokerage fee of approximately $5 per transaction….total !

For the month ending May 31, 2018 ” SPY ” closed at $271.25 which is  2.98% above SPY’s 200 day moving average.  SPY price above 200 day moving average on last day of any month,  means you can leave your SPY investment undisturbed as it has been for the past 547 days, returning 37.97% since the buy signal on March 31, 2016.  Of course, year to date SPY has appreciated only 1.64%, from  $266.86 on January 1 to $271.25 now.   That is what the top 500 companies in the USA have achieved year to date.  Before this year is over, you will either have been told by the 200 day model  to get out of the market, or the market will have appreciated or stayed the same and 90% of the analysts will have performed worse than you,… your lack of knowledge, interest or time notwithstanding. Even Warren Buffett says SPY is the benchmark nut to crack.

So you might ask, why would someone even bother to own any domestic stock other than SPY.?  The answer is a combination of a quest for recognition ( applause ), a better return ( but at more risk ) and higher fees to you for your advice ( if you are part of the fortunate 10% to outperform SPY ).

My reason for picking investments other than SPY is that it gives me a sense of security to know that I am smarter than the market.  So, I use SPY just as an indicator that its safe to go offshore for bigger fish .  I leave the market when the SPY 200-day month end signal says step aside or…. lets beach this sucker !.

As of yesterday’s close, I was 10.8% above even for the year, which allows me to stand admiringly in front of the mirror with a smile on my face.  If  I were down 10.8%, I’d be trying like the devil to find out where I went wrong and that could have been as simple as ignoring the old adage ” play till May, then go away “.

I know that when I venture beyond SPY, I am leaving the relative safety of market risk and taking on an ocean of specific risk.  This means you better learn how to pick stocks and when to say adieu….understanding that no one ever went to the poor house taking a smaller profit.  Or being like a boxer. Hit, but don’t get hit !

Some of the stocks I am invested in are AMZN, FB, MSFT, TWTR, MA, MCO. JPM, GOOG.

Some of the ETFs I am invested in are SPY, DIA, QQQ, MDY, IWM, ITA, SBIO, XBI.

Oh yes, one final word. I don’t have a license to give financial advice, so take all of this free financial chatter as being worth zero.

Richard Maurice Gore

SPY – Good News / Bad News

Friday, March 30th, 2018

March 30, 2018

The good news is that there was no Sell signal, yesterday March 30,2018.

The bad news is, if you have been faithful to the dictates of the  SPY 200 day, month end, trading model since December 31,  you are down $18,198, year to date on, the 4,905 shares you have been holding.

SPY , December 31, 2017  , $266.86

SPY , March 30,2018,   $263.15………difference ..( $18,197.55 ) negative

With only 1/3 the above investment, I am ahead $14,969, year to date,  the reason being I don’t invest in SPY ( market risk ), I use SPY only as the canary to tell me whether its ok for me to be in equities ( market risk plus specific risk ) or be on the sidelines. If I didn’t have the financial background or analysis time to invest in Equities, I too would be following the SPY 200 day model and$18,197.55 unrealized loss would not have me worried.

Truth be told, I was ahead $33,000 in equity profits just two weeks ago. Equity Profits can melt fast in a downdraft.

Now, SPY notwithstanding, I am investing only 10% of my investible funds.  I could have been ahead $100,000 if I had all my investible funds invested in equities as of January 1. So I am ahead $80,000 less than what would have been had I followed my convictions 100%. No tears.

From the above, you can conclude that the specific risk of equity investing  ( as opposed to just the market risk of SPY ) can get you if you don’t select the appropriate stocks and ETFs.  I have learned not to ignore what the charts are telling me. To rely on big up days with volume ( conviction ) saying buy….is not enough.  In the case of Amazon, I walked into a whipsaw created by someone’s obsession to “get ” Jeff Bezos, founder of AMZN and owner of the Washington Post. It wouldn’t have happened if I had concluded just from the chart that there is no reason to rush back in.

So, there is a smile on my face only because I now know that charts can not only  help me quickly separate  equities that deserve analysis, but  that charts can be useful in telling me which stocks, above all others, are ready for more money or are not looking like compelling vehicles

Richard Maurice Gore

March 1- SPY persists as a Buy

Thursday, March 1st, 2018

March 1, 2018

 

I have to admit, as January turned into February with SPY still a BUY, it looked as though SPY’s 200 day moving average would never hold for the entire month and that investors would be mightily tempted to beat the crowd. to the exits.  And , what followed, explains why there have been only 6 sell signals of the month end SPY model since January 1, 2000.

SPY ended February at $ 271.65.

SPY’s 200 day moving average is $ $255.62

By definition, SPY remains on a buy signal.

What this means for me.  I can stay invested in SPY, or take on risk beyond “market ” risk and invest in sector ETFs …” Sector risk”  or even purchase individual equities ” Specific  risk “.  All it means to me is that the market is in an uptrend and you are a trend follower, as I am, you follow the trend to the end.

What this means for you.  I don’t have a license to give advice. So, I won’t , except to say , if I were inclined to start investing in SPY, I would do it incrementally over time, understanding that if a sell signal interrupted my program I would gladly take a small loss rather than hop onboard for a 55% drawdown which is what happened during the last recession.  My goal is to make a reasonable amount of money or , at worst , take a small loss with the knowledge I have protected my capital to play again at the next buy signal.

 

Richard Maurice Gore

 

 

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On a BUY ?…..or What ?

Thursday, February 8th, 2018

Feb 8, 2018

What I have been saying about interest rates and inflation versus earnings yields is coming true.

The market is adjusting to the fact that the Trump / Republican budget is a calculated gamble that the tax reduction in the face of increased spending will not cause inflation, increased government spending, and a higher national debt to be financed in the bond market via higher interest rates.

The SPY model says we are on a buy signal and it has been right 5 out of 6 times since 2000. The model says hold till the close February 28 and exit if the 200 day moving price average of SPY is higher than SPY at the close that day.

This is an across the board sell off, so the risk is not in stock picking. This is market risk, pure and simple.

I have allowed my emotions to overule the model and I am now 1/3 invested and  still acceptably profitable for the year to date.

The balance I wanted to find is to look forward to the market’s close each day in anticipation of the market climbing, even though I am only settling for 1/3 of what could have been.

On the other hand, if the market continues to sell off, I can console myself that I am only 1/3 invested and positioned to invest 2/3 of my investible funds at lower prices.

The Republicans and Trump are swinging for the fences, instead of slow and easy like Obama and his Federal Reserve.  I can tell you that a home run, or better yet, a Trump home run is far more satisfying to the Donald than a high on-base percentage.

This approach landed him in trouble in Atlantic City and it reached the point where no USA bank would lend him money because of his Chapter 11 bankruptcies.

Now he is carrying the enabling Republicans with him and together they are gambling with the full faith and credit of the United States.

It may very well be that Trump’s approach to borrowing as the self-described ” King of Debt ” is the dreaded black swan the market has long feared.

Richard Maurice Gore

 

 

 

 

Believe it or not !

Thursday, February 1st, 2018

As of the market close January 31, 2018

What do you make of all the assurances coming from economic numbers?

The answer, at least for me,…….Short-term  ( 30 days ) positive , Long-term…. I’ll follow the SPY trend following model.

Today,  I have consulted with Confucius and he has suggested I take a good look at a chart of SPY, the ETF which represents a basket of 500 stocks which make up the S&P 500 Index. They trade as a single stock and you are in or out for approximately $6.95 per trade, whether you are trading 1 share or 1000 shares of SPY.

For Confucious, a picture was worth a thousand words, For me, a chart is worth 1000 words.

My SPY chart tells me SPY closed January with its price above its 200 day moving average, That means I should either own SPY or some alternate Index ETF which presents in a way you are confident will outperform SPY.

Or, you  can go riskier  and pick a  managed sector ETF such as BOTX ( robotics ).  Good luck!  Or, you can pick an individual risk stock such as AAPL.  Again, good luck.

SPY closed at $266.86 December 31. 2017  It closed today at $ 281.90.  That means the value of your investment in 4,905 shares of SPY grew by $ 73,771.20 just during January.  That’s right, just during January.

Your SPY investment has grown from $1 million  to $ 1,382,000 over the past 2 years. For doing exactly nothing….the very definition of Capitalism.

Is this performance based on the assumption that Trump and the Republicans will grow jobs and hours?  I don’t know,  and I don’t  care.  I follow the model. The model has been backtested to January 1, 2000.  I should be “all in ” until the trend ends  ( any month end SPY’s price ends lower than the 200 day moving average of its price ).

At the present time, my biggest risk seems to be not being fully invested in SPY and ignoring or doubting the upside trend while it lasts.

 

Richard Maurice Gore