Buy and Hold Wealth Tracker as of close February 29, 2016

February 29, 2016….   at market close

SPY’s closing price $193.69 for February 2016  was below SPY’s 200 day moving average…..$201.17

According to the SPY, month end, 200 day trend model,  the average investor should have been and be on the sidelines , in cash or equivalents waiting for possible market re-entry after the close March 31.

$1 million invested in SPY at its December 31, 2015 closing price,$203.87 would now be worth $950,066 reflecting a decision to remain in the market despite the December 31 sell signal.  As of the close today, that decision to Buy and Hold would amount to an unrealized loss of $49,934, 4.99%.

On the other hand, if the December 31 sell signal had been respected and a market exit effected on the first trading day in January, the  unrealized trading loss would be and could remain at $16,500….1.65% until market er-entry.

In my opinion, what the above illustrates is that you better have a strong stomach  and plenty of patience if you decide to Buy and Hold.

Lets see how this turns out as time goes on.

Richard Maurice Gore

 

 

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