Believe it or not !

As of the market close January 31, 2018

What do you make of all the assurances coming from economic numbers?

The answer, at least for me,…….Short-term  ( 30 days ) positive , Long-term…. I’ll follow the SPY trend following model.

Today,  I have consulted with Confucius and he has suggested I take a good look at a chart of SPY, the ETF which represents a basket of 500 stocks which make up the S&P 500 Index. They trade as a single stock and you are in or out for approximately $6.95 per trade, whether you are trading 1 share or 1000 shares of SPY.

For Confucious, a picture was worth a thousand words, For me, a chart is worth 1000 words.

My SPY chart tells me SPY closed January with its price above its 200 day moving average, That means I should either own SPY or some alternate Index ETF which presents in a way you are confident will outperform SPY.

Or, you  can go riskier  and pick a  managed sector ETF such as BOTX ( robotics ).  Good luck!  Or, you can pick an individual risk stock such as AAPL.  Again, good luck.

SPY closed at $266.86 December 31. 2017  It closed today at $ 281.90.  That means the value of your investment in 4,905 shares of SPY grew by $ 73,771.20 just during January.  That’s right, just during January.

Your SPY investment has grown from $1 million  to $ 1,382,000 over the past 2 years. For doing exactly nothing….the very definition of Capitalism.

Is this performance based on the assumption that Trump and the Republicans will grow jobs and hours?  I don’t know,  and I don’t  care.  I follow the model. The model has been backtested to January 1, 2000.  I should be “all in ” until the trend ends  ( any month end SPY’s price ends lower than the 200 day moving average of its price ).

At the present time, my biggest risk seems to be not being fully invested in SPY and ignoring or doubting the upside trend while it lasts.


Richard Maurice Gore




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