Archive for November, 2016

November 30, 2016 SPY Signal = HOLD

Wednesday, November 30th, 2016

November 30, 2016

Your $1,000,000 investment in SPY ( 4905 shares )as from January 1, 2016 is now worth $1,080,964.

That is a gain of $80,964 for watching grass grow. ( excluding dividends ).

No commission, no risk associated with owning a specific equity, and no share going to a third party investment advisor.

You can also take comfort in knowing that SPY is the standard against which all professional portfolio managers are measured and in knowing that more than 80% don’t outperform SPY.

What is ahead ? Just market risk for the 500 big cap USA companies in your SPY portfolio. And, that risk will be addressed by the fact that, as a trend follower, I will not sit still for a protracted ride down. At any month end where the price of SPY is below SPYs 200 day trailing average of price, I will exit the market.

As of November 30, 2016 the price of SPY was $220.34 while its 200 day moving average was $209.47 and that is why I am staying in the market and holding SPY.

Richard Maurice Gore

Huma Mahmood Abedin….etc

Friday, November 4th, 2016

November 4, 2016

I believe in the adage ” Birds of a feather, flock together “, so I thought that knowing more about Huma Mahmood Abedin of Kalamazoo, Michigan, and Jiddah, Saudi Arabia would give me a better handle on “Crooked Hillary “.  Abedin is a Moslem of Indian-Pakistani descent and Vice Chair of Hillary’s campaign as well as being her number three aide when Hillary served as Secretary of State.  She started her work for Hillary as a White House intern during the Clinton administration.  She also works for the Clinton Foundation. She speaks fluent Urdu and Arabic and is an acknowledged expert on the Middle East having followed her growing up years at Jiddah with an educational focus on Journalism and Political Science at British and USA schools. Her acknowledged role model is TV journalist, Christine Amanpour.

But who is she ?  I got an insight by watching the Showtime documentary on Anthony Weiner. She impressed me as a soft, loving, supportive wife and mother, standing helpless and knowing better with eyes downcast and sad, while her husband, Anthony Weiner,  self- destructed and brought shame on her little family.  What I didn’t see was a bag woman for Hillary  projecting a hardened  edge in the vein of a Megan Kelly.  She is widely acknowledged as a person of enormous intellect and it is obvious Hillary sees her as a loyal friend and important asset, especially when it comes to deciphering middle east politics.

Other final thoughts….  It is being said that Comey was in a no- win situation, so he protected his ass. My contention is that he  should have looked beyond the impact on the FBI and James Comey. You and I have skin in the game and it is widely acknowledged that his announcement of further investigatory involvement is benefiting Donald Trump and will be pointed to as a major contributing factor if Hillary should lose. He should have kept his mouth shut and protected the FBI and his reputation by being able to point to an exhaustive effort while the election was playing out.  Nixon won in a landslide but was brought down by the facts that emerged post-election.  That is a better scenario than influencing the election.  And, what if she is innocent ???

I am a self- professed student of World War II and all the mistakes that led up to it including the self -deception of the German Industrialist Class that they could control…you know who….after the election.

I am not going to use the N word ( N-zi ). I am going to substitute the word “demagogue” as in Huey Long, Joe McCarthy, Benito Mussolini and Hitler. The essential cultivating ingredient for the growth of demagoguery is the  willingness of the population to gamble everything for change.  In my opinion, thanks to an obstructionist Congress which refuses to reform itself or  recognize that 1% of the population controls 90% of our wealth, we have created a core group which sees the candidacy of Donald Trump as our sole and last possibility for change. They are willing to overlook the veiled seriousness of comments like I could shoot someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue and still be elected.  They are encouraging the country to follow Donald and jump into the abyss because they see no alternative to haves versus have-nots

I am afraid to think of the aftermath.

I realize this has nothing to do with investing….except that 401ks abhor uncertainty.

Richard Maurice Gore

October 31…SPY still on a BUY

Tuesday, November 1st, 2016

October 31, 2016

As of right now, you made the correct decision to hold SPY these past ten months.

$1,000,000 invested in SPY on December 31, 2015 would now be worth $ 1,042,821 (4.28% excluding dividends )

Please remember, SPY is the benchmark against which all portfolio manager  performance is measured.

So, why pay anyone anything to handle your portfolio, if they can’t outperform SPY.  With just one share of SPY, you have a portfolio of the 500 largest  USA stocks with only market risk, and no risk specific to any one stock. And, you get a dividend of 2.20% plus the future growth of these companies.

Of course, there is still a two-month “wall of worry”  to climb before you can say you made it through 2016 in one piece.

The latest GDP growth figures should encourage Janet Yellen, Fed Chair,  to raise interest rates in December and , probably, the market won’t like that. Also, there is the uncertainty of the USA election and the market abhors uncertainty. Other possible surprises could include a confrontation over Syria, Ukraine, South China Sea etc., domestic terror .  And, who knows what tricks Putin has up his sleeve to create uncertainty in our digitally dependent world ? And, don’t forget this week’s jobs report which could point to economic weakness or an expectation of inflation.

So,  there is your  “wall of worry” for the market to climb.  But, do take comfort in the fact that you don’t have the myriad of negative surprises inherent in owning a specific stock, such as exploding cell phones etc.

I usually add to my portfolio, which revolves around SPY during November / December and this year I’ll begin that process as soon as the market reacts to the election.

Richard Maurice Gore