Archive for September, 2015

August 31 Sell Signal Still Good

Wednesday, September 30th, 2015

September 30. 2015

Don’t mess with this SPY timing model.

It signaled  “SELL ” as of the close August 31.

As of the close today, September 30, 2015,  the 200 day moving average of SPY was $204.43. The closing price of SPY was $.191.59,  6.28 % below $204.43  By definition a sell signal.

Are you surprised ?

Take a  look at some background factors.

1- You have Federal Reserve Officials including Janet Yellen publicly vacillating on a decision to raise rates  a miserable quarter percent ( 25 basis points ) even though they know a rate hike is not warranted by an overheating economy and could throw us into a recession. A rate hike and the resultant stronger dollar would help our Euro friends revive their economies via exports to us…at the expense of  exports  by our major international companies.  And that prospect is a ” no sale ” on Wall Street !

2- More and more China is looking like a fragile economy, with a decline in China’s stock market and economic indicators signaling weak buying power. Are you listening  Apple ?  Haven’t heard Carl Ichaan talking about a $200 Apple recently.

3- You have all the maneuverings of Putin and Obama relative to Syria including the threat ( made good ) of Russia directly attacking our Sunni  “friends” ?  . So it looks like Russia is lining up the Shites of Syria and Iran against the Sunnis of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq etc. for a replay of the Iraq / Iran war on a Syrian playing field ( for  starters ) with Putin creating problems that will take our focus off the Ukraine and get revenge for the sanctions.

4- You have a mass of humanity migrating toward Germany and threatening to change the multi national culture of Europe.  Who is hidden in that Trojan horse ?

5 – You have all the Republican players calling each other ( and Obama ) out on how terrible things are.  And, you have Bernie demanding wholesale systemic reform of our political and financial institutions…because our economy is rigged in favor of the 1% ultra rich.

Does this add up to a ” Wall of Worry ” that markets can climb ?  ( even with interest rates as low as ours )….Or is this a “Wall of Uncertainty” that equity markets abhor with a cascading  selloff continuing ?

You be the judge…I don’t have an answer I’m willing to  underwrite with real money. I’m a trend follower….I’ll ride with the SPY 200 day moving average / month end model and wait for a break to the upside before I dive in.  According to Bill Gross ex-guru of PIMCO….no kind of instrument is worth investing in versus the safety of cash at this particular point.

But that doesn’t mean I can’t nibble at ETFs and Stocks which have sold off but which I deem ” worthy ” of investment. Example: chosing worthy pharma stocks and bio ETFs as a reaction to Hillary’s threats and investing in them for their outstanding USA performance and resistance to her  campaign rhetoric.

So who do I like for this type of small investment ( 10 to 15 shares per name ) every time the market sells off another 5% and they remain resistant.

ETFs:  XLV….XBI….IJR….ITA

Equities: ORLY…..ALK….FB….BA…..GILD…..

Won’t be back at you till October 31 unless there is a big market moving  development that deserves analysis  and comment

Richard Maurice Gore

 

 

About Walter Palmer, Trophy Animal Hunter

Monday, September 7th, 2015

September 6, 2015

I know this doesn’t relate to investing and that I should be continuing work on my ” watch list ” of  ETF and equity securities during this ” Sell Signal ” intermission, …..but I can’t.

I don’t work for anyone except myself, so if I want to step up and step out for or against an issue, I will.

I’ve been told by parties interested in me that I’m beginning to overdue the blogging, that nobody is really that interested.  OK, I get it.  I’ll take a break and after this Post I’ll be quiet ..until a ” BUY” signal flashes some month end..

Now to the issue at hand.

I have just read that Walter Palmer gave his first interview, post Cecil,  to the London Daily Mail.

He claims he definitely would not have killed Cecil if he knew he was famous.

He claims that there are some safety issues for his family and that he doesn’t understand the level of humanity it would take to have enmity toward people not involved.

I find this amazing and my first thought is how did this guy get through an accredited dental school.  His brain needs a root canal !

OK Palmer, I get it.  Its OK to kill animals as long as they are not famous.  Its OK to pay to have a lion lured out of  his sanctuary, shoot him with a bow and arrow and then enjoy the thrill and prolonged anticipation of a 40 hour hunt following the blood trail…finally dispatch him, and then cut off his head with which you will pose triumphantly flashing a smile and your white, white teeth. 

I get it.  If its not a famous animal and you have the permits , its all OK!  That’s what you think ?

And about the safety issues for Palmer’s family…  Did you realize that you were condemning Cecil’s cubs to death when you took away  their protector ? Two are dead already…Thanks to you !  That’s OK ?  You probably have nothing to worry about concerning the safety of  your family but you sure as hell do deserve to worry !

Palmer, what I don’t get is why you can’t be satisfied just hunting with a camera and bringing home the beauty and majesty of Africa.  What more is there for you out there that isn’t grounded in a sick brain.

Lots of Americans, including me, have been through the Parks, including Kruger with cameras and we had a great time soaking up the atmosphere of ” the bush” and the encampments .  You have given new meaning to the term ” Ugly American ” and your neighbors in Bloomington, Minnesota should shun you as a pariah for your insensitivity to living creatures.

You’ve brought a shame to your name and on your family that won’t begin to be  be washed away until you,  yes you! ,  perform ongoing service, and I don’t mean money, to put a stop to trophy hunting.

Close your practice and go back to Africa. Work for free in a dental clinic for the local tribes and work to raise orphaned animal cubs.

That is your path to redemption.

Unless you do that, we all will know your only regret is that you were caught .

Richard Maurice Gore

 

 

Safe but Anxious !

Thursday, September 3rd, 2015

September 3, 2015

I keep telling myself I have been through this before, and that I should be feeling very good about having taken so much money off the table after August 17, and before the SELL signal of August 31.

But, I don’t feel very good.  Although I am disinclined to do any day trading, I feel as though I should be doing more strategically to deal with future moves the market makes. I don’t know whether this means only that I  hate  being passive,  or possibly, that I’m beginning to exhibit the symptoms of a degenerate gambler.  I’ll assume the former applies to me, ( until the intervention ).

To rid myself of market anxiety , I’ve decided to do something proactive and positive to while away the time until the next month end BUY signal arrives, ( hopefully October 31 ).  

I would feel very anxious if a BUY signal is received September 30. With October, Halloween  and the prospect of a 100% whipsaw staring me in the face,  I’ve already decided I would absolutely mistrust a September 30 BUY signal.  How’s that for taking the emotion out of investing !

To alleviate my feeling of dread, (even though I have very little at risk ), I’ve decided to invest dribs and drabs every time the prices of a particular equity or ETF  hits a new low, 5% lower than it’s last low. This means if an equity declines a full 50%,  I’d have made 10 drib /drab investments to commemorate every successive  5% downward move in that equity or ETF . With a 25% retracement, I’d have made 5 purchases , and with a 15% decline, just three purchases in an equity or ETF . All this presumably would lower my average cost as the market moves lower with roughly 85% of my money waiting for an ” All In”  deployment at the BUY signal.

I have a strong sense that this activity will, at least , make me feel I am doing something constructive while I wait..

I will add between 10 and 25  shares every time the market price of each of the following ETFs declines a further  5%.

SPY, XBI, QQQ, XHS, VDE, VGK, HEDJ, DXJ.

I will add 25 shares every time the market price of each of the following equities declines a further  8%.

AAPL, CVS, HD, ALK, MHK, WBA, ORLY, HCA, FB, GILD, TWX, SWHC.  I know its said to be foolish to average down a losing equity position.  But, these are equities which exhibit all the characteristics of marriage type equities.  I will still be following specific events and can pull the plug on any  if I believe doing so is warranted.

Now for my disclaimer.  I don’t have a licence to give investment advice to anyone(  including myself  ! ) ,  so please don’t consider the above in any way reliable for investment action by you.  The purpose of the this site if for me to find out where and why you think I’m wrong.  So, please feel free to  chime in.

Richard Maurice Gore

 

SPY Sell Signal

Tuesday, September 1st, 2015

September 1, 2015

After 921 days, for this trade…..it’s time has come.

SPY  generated a month end SELL signal at yesterday’s close, telling me to get out of the water…..pronto !

This trade was opened as a BUY on December 31, 2011 and has returned 69.02% since then including dividends and distributions according to “ETFreplay” ,  my back testing provider.  That amounts to an average gain of 1.57% per month, or an average of 18.84% per annum.

Not bad pay for watching grass grow and paint dry !

The trade before this, September 30, 2010 ( Buy ) to August 31, 2011 ( Sell ) 232 days returned 8.65%.  Money then spent four months on the sidelines before the December 31, 2011 buy signal was generated.  I will not enter the water again until SPY ends a month with its price above its 2oo day moving price average…..a Buy signal.

Stepping away from this model…..SPY is closing in on a ” death  cross “….the 50 day moving average of it’s price crossing below the 200 day moving average….AND..for those who can remember what the October  market is capable of, October is not far over the horizon….and an interest rate increase could also be bad for stocks….And, all this leaves out the Chinese Dragon / Swan….. ( red body / black tail/ long teeth  ).

On the other hand, interest rates are low and probably will stay low until the Fed sticks it’s foot in the Dragon/ Swan’s s mouth.

Interesting choices for me…..do nothing and pray my  stomach is strong enough to withstand a plus 50% drop until SPY turns and  comes back. Take half off the table and pray this is only a head fake  Or, do what I am doing ….beaching this sucker !

I’ll spend my time on the beach ( at least until the September 30 close) , researching fixed income alternatives which beat money market rates.

I’ll be in touch.

Richard Maurice Gore