Archive for April, 2014

Tricky Trail to Follow

Wednesday, April 30th, 2014

April 30, 2014

VTI is still officially on a ” buy ” ( price above 200 day moving average at month end ) and showing a profit of  58.12%  if bought on December 30, 2011. The buy signal has now lasted 583 days.

However, since January 1, 2014 VTI has appreciated only 2.1%. . Hardly enough to provide a living   !  So, I  ventured out of VTI and into other Index and Sector ETFs and enjoyed  a very similar result. Definitely not thrilling !

On top of this so-so performance, the market as a whole has been consistently flashing ” Non Confirmation ” via weak volume on any daily price gains which, at first glance, appear encouraging.

I examine the price / volume action of about 50 Equity and ETF positions every night.  In  rare cases where volume confirmed positive price action,  over  the next few days, there was no follow  through.

Where is this trail leading me ?  Away from” play in May ” …yes…..  Away from a Ukrainian Black Swan….yes.

It is leading me toward Investor Rule # 1 – DON’T LOSE CAPITAL.

To get a more risk friendly return I have begun to invest in some of the fixed income ETFs till things sort themselves out. ( BOND, HYS,JNK,HYG,LQD ).  I’m looking to minimize interest rate risk via shorter duration holdings.

And, at some point I would be willing to average down on Equity Index ETFs ( not individual  stocks ! )  if market action, the  Fed and Putin non- action indicate a break in the clouds.

At the moment, I’m continuing to sell into whatever  strength shows in any of my long positions.

GOLD ended April below its 200 day moving average, so it will be at least another month before I invest in GLD

Now, lets see whether 2014 will be a ” Play till May, then go away ” year !

 

Richard Maurice Gore

 

Still Chugging Along

Monday, April 14th, 2014

April 14,2014

The VTI trade is now 572 days old and showing a profit of 53.7%.  Not that this specific trade is doing me any  good because I’m not in it.

To me its a signal that its still  ok to trade in this very changeable, volatile  market.  Up 2% ( $20,000 on a million ) one day and down 2% the next and so on.

I’m beginning to think that our new Fed Chairman, a heralded White Swan could, at some point,  be perceived as  a dreaded Black Swan by Wall Street.

This market is showing me that if you have a queasy  stomach, high momentum stocks are the last place to be.  Give me the far more gentle ride on a SPY, or  VTI.

I do own some stocks because I fancy myself to be something more than an ordinary investor.  Pure hubris on my part.  But, trust me,  I’ve learned my lesson and eagerly await a profitable , safe and final exit from Tesla and Facebook on the shore.

My core ETF  holdings…RPG, QQEW, XLV, ITA, XLF, QQEW, VB, VDE and IBB

My core Equity holdings…FB, TSLA, ITT, GE, CNQ, DFS.

Presently, my consolidated Portfolio is underwater 4.7%.

I intend to hold my positions until VTI tells me otherwise.

Richard Maurice Gore

 

 

 

Sell Signal for Gold – No Foolin !

Tuesday, April 1st, 2014

April 1, 2014

Gold did not survive March.  It closed below its 200 day moving average March 31,  so I sold my entire position this morning at the market open…at a loss of 3 %

On the other hand VTI ended March safely above it’s 200 day moving average.  Price $97.47…..200 day moving average $90.17.

Since its VTI that keeps me in the market, I thought I’d round out a few long positions.  I increased my holdings  in RPG, my #1 position,  ITA, XLV and XLF.

I am very interested in XBI and IBB, but they  represent too much beta for me to deal with at the moment.

Richard Maurice Gore