Archive for August, 2011

100% long – May / Go Away Portfolio

Monday, August 22nd, 2011

August 26. 2011 will mark one year since my first post

” A Message to my Family, Friends and Former Business Associates “

After re-reading that first post, I am more than happy to confirm that I am still a top down, ETF-ing market timer.

I define my constituency as 401Kers who have been re-structured out of a job, and who are converting their 401K to a self directed IRA without really appreciating the complexity of putting together portfolios of ETFs that can be tweaked to prosper under varying market conditions. Such people are invited to copy my portfolio selections and timing actions investing with their current borker.

I aim to change my portfolio no more than twice each year and any help I give is no fee – pro bono – in the belief that by helping you I am helping our economy via your wealth effect.

I don’t give investment advice because I am not licenced to do so.  I don’t want a licence because I dislike giving advice. I am very much aware of my academic and career qualifications and know that I am good at timing and making ETF selections. That’s all the licence I need to invest my own money with confidence.

I consider myself an investor and I truly believe the definition of  investing is managing risk. My minimum annual goal is a return
3 times the yield of the 10 year treasury note on trhe day I invest my money. Today that would be 6.3% . In an uptrending market I aim for the historical rate for stocks, 10% plus 3% to offset inflation.

I don’t swing a heavy bat. I am far more interested in on base percentage.

I get rewarded for my work directly by the market, by third party applause and by the sheer joy of getting it right.

I got it VERY RIGHT when I exited this market on May 13, 2011 with a profit of 11.6% for the previous 12 months. See that post. This was 2 weeks after the market high was set on April 29, 2011.

The major market benchmarks Dow Jones Industrials and S&P 500 are down approximately 15% since May 1. I re-entered the
market May 28 with a ” Go Away “portfolio designed for dividends and interest and to be a beacon for investors caught in a storm such as we are enduring at present.

This May 28 Go Away Portfolio is just about neutral after these 2 plus tumultous months. It has withstood the current downdraft, and is just ticking along earning dividends and interest.

So, I am sleeping nights. As always, I invite you to contact me if you are curious enough to see what my portfolio looks like… And why it looks the way it does. Place your trades through your broker and then just stay plugged in to me.

Bye
Richard  Maurice Gore aka RMG, Dick Gore etc

The Day After

Tuesday, August 9th, 2011

To family, friends and former associates

I am told that the truest definition of investment is…. managing risk.

With the Dow down 600 plus points yesterday, August 8,2011, the ” May-Go Away ” portfolio has lost 3.4% of its value since May 28, 2011.

Versus…a loss of 14.7% for the S&P 500 Index..the benchmark against which market analysts are measured.

Believe it or not…I am still aiming for a total return of at least 6% for this portfolio for the six months to end
October 31, 2011.

Bye for now….

Richard, aka Rich, Richie, Dick and Smiley from Woodlawn

Click, Click – Another Tweak

Thursday, August 4th, 2011

On May 13,2011 we took all the profits ( $116,000 ) from our May 2010 to May 2011 Portfolio and reset the profit clock to zero.

On May 28 we initiated new positions in a defensive Its May – Go Away portfolio.

If we had not sold the May 2010 / May 2011 portfolio, as of today we would have given back every penny of the $ 116,000 profit we made. So much for buy and hold !

Our May 2011 ” Go Away ” portfolio has given back just $16,023- on a $1 million investment via Tweaks with earnings of $4,394 in dividends thru July 31,2010.

And, as of this morning we are implementing more defensive moves halving four existing positions and adding four new positions. Why ?

We want to protect the viability of the dividend / interest stream of approximately 2.71% per annum, enhance it and benefit via
capital gains from the anticipated investor migration from equities to fixed income vehicles in the face of a still more ominous market outlook.

a ) Consumer spending ( 60% of our economy ) is trending down.
b ) The job and housing rut is continuing to harden.
c ) News from Europe ? Italy, the world’s 3rd largest bond issuer
is approaching the credit red zone.

You would need to be half Sherpa, half Spiderman to climb this wall of worry.

If you want to know how I am investing my liquid net worth under these conditions…just contact me. ( hint: not money market funds )

Bye for now Richard, aka Richie, Rich, Dick and …Smiley from Woodlawn.