SPY Buy Signal Continues

December 1st, 2015

Market close November 30, 2015

The SPY trend following signal ” BUY ” remains  in effect.

This is based on SPY’s November 30, 2015 closing price being above its 200 day simple moving average.

SPY became a buy October 31 and since then has appreciated..o.37%.. The trade is 20 days old.

SPY is an ETF ( Exchange Traded Fund ).  It represents a basket of the USA’s top 500 companies weighted by the amount of capital invested in a particular stock.  Take the price of a stock and multiply it by the amount of shares outstanding to arrive at total capital.

SPY’s top holding, Apple, represents 3.64% of it’s assets,  while SPY stock #25  of the 500 ( VISA ) represents 0.84% of the value of SPY’s portfolio… and so on, down to holding #500.  Pretty good diversification, for all intents eliminating the risks inherent in investing in one stock.

The remaining risk in SPY, market risk, ( all the boats go out with the tide ) is still there, but my intent is to eliminate that risk by my market trend following ( timing ) activity. Of course, Warren Buffett,  and John Bogle ,( Vanguard ) want you to just buy and never sell SPY, but my back testing  has put me in  the cheeky position of disregarding their advice.

If you want even more diversification, consider Vanguard’s VTI which represents 3,791 USA holdings ( the entire stock market ) in its basket.

I prefer to focus on SPY because SPY is more liquid than VTI and  I also use 50 % of my capital to contingently buy SPY one month out at a price lower than today’s price .For this I receive an upfront premium.  In other words, I’m not afraid to lock myself in to purchasing even more SPY at what I consider to be a better price.

Richard Maurice Gore




October 31st, 2015

OCTOBER 30, 2015 ….Market Close

SPY ended October at $207.93 which is 1.6%….. above it’s 200 day simple moving average of $$204.59.

According to my SPY 200 day Month End  Model, a buy signal has been triggered telling me to go ” ALL IN “. in SPY.

The last Buy Signal for SPY under this model was valid for 921 days ( December 30, 2011 – August 31, 2015 ) and returned a total of 69.02% including dividends and distributions.

There have only been 6 trades since the Buy Signal of February 29, 2000.  All Buys were winners except the Buy Signal triggered on March 28,2002 which became a Sell Signal just one month later, resulting in a loss of 5.82% for the round trip.

If you had followed this model since January 2000,  your total return would have been 280.02% versus 103.29% ( Buy and Hold ).

If you had ignored the month end rule  and bought and sold SPY every day SPY  crossed its 200 day moving average, you would have been involved in 61 trades and 46 of them would have been losers. !!

I subscribe to a back testing service,” ETF Replay” , and I am relying on the accuracy of  their data for my trading.

Please don’t rely on my advice because I have no licence to give it.  I am merely showing you what I do as an alternative to the Buy and Hold advice given by  ” heavyweights ”  such as  Warren Buffet and John Bogle of Vanguard.  I am using the same index, the S&P 500, but adding the concept of mechanical trend following.

As stated in my very first Post…all this is intended to do is share with those who are new to IRAs and ETFs,  my  alternative to my  putting myself in the hands of someone who could expose my savings to the higher risk of individual stocks without indicating the difference in magnitude between the “specific risk”  of individual stocks and SPY’s  much lower “market risk”.


Richard Maurice Gore



Citizen Alert ! Follow the Money !

October 9th, 2015

October 9, 2015

You may be interested to know PEOPLE magazine has just published a contact list for all 535 members of the US Congress.

PEOPLE published the list as  ” a Call to Action ” for people to make their voices heard about the frequency of mass shootings in the USA.

Congressional contact data has been  in the desk drawer of every Lobbyist on K Street,  Washington DC. for some time.

Lobbyists  are using the list to contact your Congressman and infiltrate his staff  to  influence him to vote on  many issues  for what is very  probably not  in your best interest.

Since the year 2000 the number of  lobbyists in Washington has doubled and the starting salary runs about $300,000.  You can thank ” trickle down ”  ( Bush Tax Cuts for the wealthiest Americans ) as ammunition for the lobbyists to ” work with ” your Congressman.

An Example of Lobbyist influence…. 90% of Americans are for a background check on gun purchasers  and Congress does nothing. What is going on here ?  Total non-responsiveness !

The truth is congressional staffs have been thoroughly infiltrated and corrupted by lobbyists with gifts, trips, freebees and promises of future employment. This has made Congress non-responsive and incapable of courageous positive action.  Campaign money flowing from lobbyists and their wealthy overseers has made it more  and more possible for congressmen to ignore answering  to their constituents for their actions or lack thereof. How many congressmen fail  to get re-elected ?

Our founding fathers didn’t want congress to be a career…never mind a business.! Do you think Congress would vote for term limits ? Not a chance.

Did you know that more than half of our 535 members of Congress are millionaires ?  Wouldn’t it be interesting to know whether they became millionaires after becoming a member of Congress ?

In my opinion The ultimate election issue of 2016 is….

Can we free Congress from the clutches of the lobbyists and the 1% wealthiest Americans who have doubled down on Congress with ” trickle down “……..because this issue plays into every issue on the election agenda.

This might be a good test to measure Lobbyist infiltration of Congress….

How many of the 535 members of Congress accept campaign money or other donations from the National Rifle Association.? Who are they.?  

The only way to end this subversion is to offset the focused  gifts and threats of the lobbyists with the threat of focused grass roots action aimed at the  election defeat for individual  Congressmen who ” sell out ” to the lobbyists and their ultra rich overseers..

It will require a grass roots MOVEMENT to do this ..as suggested by Bernie Sanders because Congress refuses to cure itself..

Bernie or no Bernie Sanders Congressional REFORM must take place ASAP.  Attitudes are hardening and our economy is evolving into what could become a struggle exponentially beyond ” Occupy Wall Street .”…especially with the wealthiest 1% saying the bottom 99% is just jealous of their success.

Richard Maurice Gore



August 31 Sell Signal Still Good

September 30th, 2015

September 30. 2015

Don’t mess with this SPY timing model.

It signaled  “SELL ” as of the close August 31.

As of the close today, September 30, 2015,  the 200 day moving average of SPY was $204.43. The closing price of SPY was $.191.59,  6.28 % below $204.43  By definition a sell signal.

Are you surprised ?

Take a  look at some background factors.

1- You have Federal Reserve Officials including Janet Yellen publicly vacillating on a decision to raise rates  a miserable quarter percent ( 25 basis points ) even though they know a rate hike is not warranted by an overheating economy and could throw us into a recession. A rate hike and the resultant stronger dollar would help our Euro friends revive their economies via exports to us…at the expense of  exports  by our major international companies.  And that prospect is a ” no sale ” on Wall Street !

2- More and more China is looking like a fragile economy, with a decline in China’s stock market and economic indicators signaling weak buying power. Are you listening  Apple ?  Haven’t heard Carl Ichaan talking about a $200 Apple recently.

3- You have all the maneuverings of Putin and Obama relative to Syria including the threat ( made good ) of Russia directly attacking our Sunni  “friends” ?  . So it looks like Russia is lining up the Shites of Syria and Iran against the Sunnis of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq etc. for a replay of the Iraq / Iran war on a Syrian playing field ( for  starters ) with Putin creating problems that will take our focus off the Ukraine and get revenge for the sanctions.

4- You have a mass of humanity migrating toward Germany and threatening to change the multi national culture of Europe.  Who is hidden in that Trojan horse ?

5 – You have all the Republican players calling each other ( and Obama ) out on how terrible things are.  And, you have Bernie demanding wholesale systemic reform of our political and financial institutions…because our economy is rigged in favor of the 1% ultra rich.

Does this add up to a ” Wall of Worry ” that markets can climb ?  ( even with interest rates as low as ours )….Or is this a “Wall of Uncertainty” that equity markets abhor with a cascading  selloff continuing ?

You be the judge…I don’t have an answer I’m willing to  underwrite with real money. I’m a trend follower….I’ll ride with the SPY 200 day moving average / month end model and wait for a break to the upside before I dive in.  According to Bill Gross ex-guru of PIMCO….no kind of instrument is worth investing in versus the safety of cash at this particular point.

But that doesn’t mean I can’t nibble at ETFs and Stocks which have sold off but which I deem ” worthy ” of investment. Example: chosing worthy pharma stocks and bio ETFs as a reaction to Hillary’s threats and investing in them for their outstanding USA performance and resistance to her  campaign rhetoric.

So who do I like for this type of small investment ( 10 to 15 shares per name ) every time the market sells off another 5% and they remain resistant.


Equities: ORLY…..ALK….FB….BA…..GILD…..

Won’t be back at you till October 31 unless there is a big market moving  development that deserves analysis  and comment

Richard Maurice Gore



About Walter Palmer, Trophy Animal Hunter

September 7th, 2015

September 6, 2015

I know this doesn’t relate to investing and that I should be continuing work on my ” watch list ” of  ETF and equity securities during this ” Sell Signal ” intermission, …..but I can’t.

I don’t work for anyone except myself, so if I want to step up and step out for or against an issue, I will.

I’ve been told by parties interested in me that I’m beginning to overdue the blogging, that nobody is really that interested.  OK, I get it.  I’ll take a break and after this Post I’ll be quiet ..until a ” BUY” signal flashes some month end..

Now to the issue at hand.

I have just read that Walter Palmer gave his first interview, post Cecil,  to the London Daily Mail.

He claims he definitely would not have killed Cecil if he knew he was famous.

He claims that there are some safety issues for his family and that he doesn’t understand the level of humanity it would take to have enmity toward people not involved.

I find this amazing and my first thought is how did this guy get through an accredited dental school.  His brain needs a root canal !

OK Palmer, I get it.  Its OK to kill animals as long as they are not famous.  Its OK to pay to have a lion lured out of  his sanctuary, shoot him with a bow and arrow and then enjoy the thrill and prolonged anticipation of a 40 hour hunt following the blood trail…finally dispatch him, and then cut off his head with which you will pose triumphantly flashing a smile and your white, white teeth. 

I get it.  If its not a famous animal and you have the permits , its all OK!  That’s what you think ?

And about the safety issues for Palmer’s family…  Did you realize that you were condemning Cecil’s cubs to death when you took away  their protector ? Two are dead already…Thanks to you !  That’s OK ?  You probably have nothing to worry about concerning the safety of  your family but you sure as hell do deserve to worry !

Palmer, what I don’t get is why you can’t be satisfied just hunting with a camera and bringing home the beauty and majesty of Africa.  What more is there for you out there that isn’t grounded in a sick brain.

Lots of Americans, including me, have been through the Parks, including Kruger with cameras and we had a great time soaking up the atmosphere of ” the bush” and the encampments .  You have given new meaning to the term ” Ugly American ” and your neighbors in Bloomington, Minnesota should shun you as a pariah for your insensitivity to living creatures.

You’ve brought a shame to your name and on your family that won’t begin to be  be washed away until you,  yes you! ,  perform ongoing service, and I don’t mean money, to put a stop to trophy hunting.

Close your practice and go back to Africa. Work for free in a dental clinic for the local tribes and work to raise orphaned animal cubs.

That is your path to redemption.

Unless you do that, we all will know your only regret is that you were caught .

Richard Maurice Gore



Safe but Anxious !

September 3rd, 2015

September 3, 2015

I keep telling myself I have been through this before, and that I should be feeling very good about having taken so much money off the table after August 17, and before the SELL signal of August 31.

But, I don’t feel very good.  Although I am disinclined to do any day trading, I feel as though I should be doing more strategically to deal with future moves the market makes. I don’t know whether this means only that I  hate  being passive,  or possibly, that I’m beginning to exhibit the symptoms of a degenerate gambler.  I’ll assume the former applies to me, ( until the intervention ).

To rid myself of market anxiety , I’ve decided to do something proactive and positive to while away the time until the next month end BUY signal arrives, ( hopefully October 31 ).  

I would feel very anxious if a BUY signal is received September 30. With October, Halloween  and the prospect of a 100% whipsaw staring me in the face,  I’ve already decided I would absolutely mistrust a September 30 BUY signal.  How’s that for taking the emotion out of investing !

To alleviate my feeling of dread, (even though I have very little at risk ), I’ve decided to invest dribs and drabs every time the prices of a particular equity or ETF  hits a new low, 5% lower than it’s last low. This means if an equity declines a full 50%,  I’d have made 10 drib /drab investments to commemorate every successive  5% downward move in that equity or ETF . With a 25% retracement, I’d have made 5 purchases , and with a 15% decline, just three purchases in an equity or ETF . All this presumably would lower my average cost as the market moves lower with roughly 85% of my money waiting for an ” All In”  deployment at the BUY signal.

I have a strong sense that this activity will, at least , make me feel I am doing something constructive while I wait..

I will add between 10 and 25  shares every time the market price of each of the following ETFs declines a further  5%.


I will add 25 shares every time the market price of each of the following equities declines a further  8%.

AAPL, CVS, HD, ALK, MHK, WBA, ORLY, HCA, FB, GILD, TWX, SWHC.  I know its said to be foolish to average down a losing equity position.  But, these are equities which exhibit all the characteristics of marriage type equities.  I will still be following specific events and can pull the plug on any  if I believe doing so is warranted.

Now for my disclaimer.  I don’t have a licence to give investment advice to anyone(  including myself  ! ) ,  so please don’t consider the above in any way reliable for investment action by you.  The purpose of the this site if for me to find out where and why you think I’m wrong.  So, please feel free to  chime in.

Richard Maurice Gore


SPY Sell Signal

September 1st, 2015

September 1, 2015

After 921 days, for this trade…..it’s time has come.

SPY  generated a month end SELL signal at yesterday’s close, telling me to get out of the water…..pronto !

This trade was opened as a BUY on December 31, 2011 and has returned 69.02% since then including dividends and distributions according to “ETFreplay” ,  my back testing provider.  That amounts to an average gain of 1.57% per month, or an average of 18.84% per annum.

Not bad pay for watching grass grow and paint dry !

The trade before this, September 30, 2010 ( Buy ) to August 31, 2011 ( Sell ) 232 days returned 8.65%.  Money then spent four months on the sidelines before the December 31, 2011 buy signal was generated.  I will not enter the water again until SPY ends a month with its price above its 2oo day moving price average…..a Buy signal.

Stepping away from this model…..SPY is closing in on a ” death  cross “….the 50 day moving average of it’s price crossing below the 200 day moving average….AND..for those who can remember what the October  market is capable of, October is not far over the horizon….and an interest rate increase could also be bad for stocks….And, all this leaves out the Chinese Dragon / Swan….. ( red body / black tail/ long teeth  ).

On the other hand, interest rates are low and probably will stay low until the Fed sticks it’s foot in the Dragon/ Swan’s s mouth.

Interesting choices for me…..do nothing and pray my  stomach is strong enough to withstand a plus 50% drop until SPY turns and  comes back. Take half off the table and pray this is only a head fake  Or, do what I am doing ….beaching this sucker !

I’ll spend my time on the beach ( at least until the September 30 close) , researching fixed income alternatives which beat money market rates.

I’ll be in touch.

Richard Maurice Gore

Bernie versus Donald….What versus How.

August 30th, 2015

August 31, 2015

You know from my Post of May 18, 2015,  “An Endorsement for Bernie “I am ready to stand beside Bernie Sanders and declare myself a Democratic Socialist, even though Social Capitalist ( leave no one behind ) is probably a closer description of my leanings.   Today, the label Socialist doesn’t mean nationalizing everything from newspapers to industry.  It means recognizing we still have some roads we need to travel  before everyone feels the playing field is level and everyone has a fair shot at ” The American Dream “.

The problem is that the middle income class ( not to mention the disadvantaged class  ) feels that the playing field is even far less level than before and Congressmen are so totally immersed in becoming millionaires and protecting their seats that Congress  it is incapable of acting to head off a class confrontation down the road.

Enter from stage right and left;  Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.

We all know Trump considers himself “influence”  proof when it comes to billionaire or lobbyist money.  And, we know that Bernie Sanders exudes an air of  totally incorruptibility.  They both seem to be firebrands , anxious to right the systemic ills of our society.

A word about Donald.  He has always impressed me with his energy and his “can do ” attitude.  Yes, he’s beyond conceited and has a fresh mouth. Childish ….yes, Petulant….yes, Feisty….yes, but  I don’t believe he has a mean bone in his body.  That’s why we can laugh at his remarks.  Maybe he doesn’t seem ” Presidential “.  But, I don’t care about his aura if he can get the right things done in a timely fashion.  The country is tired of grid lock!  And, believe me, the situation in Washington is closer to offering the next President a ” Gordian Knot ” to  untie rather than a simple case of gridlock to untangle..

A word about Bernie…The big concern is that he will be unable to change what he wants to change.  The President has less power than one would think.  A lot of his proposed changes would really need to start at a local grassroots level.  Does he have the energy to create waves that will float Congress off its present foundation ?

In my opinion, immigration is not the most important issue facing us.  Build a wall and then start work on reform of existing laws… without delay.

The big issue is how to get Congress to act against itself by un-tieing itself from the purse strings of the ultra wealthy 1%.   I’m talking excessive wealth.  So excessive, that Congressmen and their staffs  are becoming increasingly corrupted by billionaire backed lobbyists and by  financial help being  offered directly …with conditions..   The ultra wealthy are using their wealth to double down on Congress to gain an even bigger edge.

It seems the right wing  billionaire class are not concerned that..

1- 400 families control more wealth than the 150 million American taxpayers who account for the entire bottom half of our national income structure.

2- That in 1965 CEO pay was roughly 21 times that of the average hourly worker.  Today, that multiple has expanded to 231 times.

3- In 1980, getting an education was 500 times less expensive than it is today.

This group fails to see the implications of a 1% society,  pretending the fault lies with those who are jealous of their success.

I suppose its human nature for this Group to suppose they are safe and can ignore history.  This is the 21st century…nothing can happen !

Billionaire financial influence  must be challenged by the introduction of Bills that will force congressmen  to vote against their narrow self interests under the close scrutiny of an aware electorate.

Either Donald or Bernie may very well be the one who will need to confront the lobbyist ooze that is attempting to  seep under every congressional door  and from there  into every nook and cranny in Washington and beyond.

The question is HOW ( specifics ) does Sanders or Trump see himself being able to  free Congress from the tentacles that bind it to the ultra rich. Whoever  has  the best ideas on HOW to do this is the one I would vote for.

Richard Maurice Gore


About Apple

August 25th, 2015

August 25,2015

Apple offers a very clear illustration of the difference between ” specific risk + market risk“…AAPL versus plain “ market risk “… SPY.

They say almost everyone who invests owns AAPL one way or another, either  directly or through a 401K plan or whatever. Spy is almost 4% AAPL. You can count me in AAPL  both  via SPY, and direct share ownership .

Until last week I was asking myself  why I didn’t invest even more in AAPL.  It didn’t take long for the answer to arrive!

The AAPL picture compared to other growth stocks is very compelling.  A PE Ratio of +/- 10, wonderful !…  Price / Earnings to projected growth ( PEG….0.82 ), wonderful !….Free Cash Flow Yield 12.987% versus 2% for the 10 year Treasury, wonderful !….Return on Assets 20.5%, wonderful! ….lots of cash for possible dividend increases, debt pay down and stock repurchases, great !

The problem arises when you consider that all these numbers are based on the past.  But, ” Mr Market”  is more like a sales manager… interested only  in tomorrow’s result.  That’s where the trading price arrives from.  Differing opinions about the future. .  Who is right ?  Who has an edge ?. The risk  is that your opinion about APPL’s future may be incorrect.

In moving from past absolutes to future estimates ….

Q. Just how dependent is AAPL  iPhone sales on China’s growth ?

Q. Taking it one step further, just how dependable is China’s stewardship of its own economy ? Will there be sufficient buyers to meet Apple’s  China and southeast Asia sales and margin  estimates ?

Q What about the emergence of the Chinese smart phone manufacturer XIAOMI, which has announced the introduction of its smart phone to 10 new countries this fall. It has been reported Xiaomi’s Mi3 is almost 60% cheaper than the iPhone 5C …and better,  with a larger, sharper screen and a camera with higher density pixels.  Plus, Xiaomi’s pricing policy promises to be very aggressive in the emerging markets it has targeted.

Just considering the above, how do you think these factors could impact Apple’s numbers going forward.?…Still wonderful ?

The answer, for me,  is to give Apple the respect it deserves by owning some, and then, calculate at what price I want to acquire many more shares.

For me, it means that however much I want to own AAPL, its best to let it come to me and offer me a pitch I can swing at.  It means I should never let AAPL  account for more than 5% of my investment funds  and that I should buy it with a ” margin of safety ” in mind.  For instance, Morningstar says buy AAPL at $80 per share which is 20% off its Fair Value estimate and almost 30  % below this morning’s opening price of $111.07.  After yesterday, I’m not that confident this is impossible!

I am not strong on patience, so I’ll probably own 25 shares just to feel I am not being left behind !

SPY is also priced looking forward, but when you buy SPY you are buying the USA.  Its much easier to own SPY because SPY ‘s future is much easier to predict and the risk is not as compounded by facts you don’t know, you didn’t know.

At present, the yield of the 10 year Treasury is 2.09%.  The forward earnings yield of SPY is 7% ( 1 year out ). Which would you rather own ?

Richard Maurice Gore



Your Choice !

August 24th, 2015

Early AM….August 24, 2015

Awoke to see Dow futures down over 600 points with SPY and Nasdaq down big time as well.

What to do ?!

As many of you know, I am committed to a timing model on SPY.

SPY’s price relative to it’s 200 day moving average ( at month end ) determines how I react to sell offs.

SPY penetrated it’s 200 day moving average support on August 20.

Why wouldn’t I sell SPY ( and stocks acquired in the positive SPY environment ) the day of the crossover instead at month end ?

Here is  back tested data ( Courtesy of ETF Replay )  going back to January 3, 2000.

Sell day of crossover…..60 trades…..14 winners……46 losers.

Sell at Month End……   6 trades………5 winners…….1 loser

No one can deny this sell off has been ferocious.  BUT……..the market has been churning for 7 months and it seemed as though which ever way it broke,up or down,  would be a doozy.  I said in an Archived Post that Apple was my canary in the mine.  But, it still cost me $5,000 to bury my canary !

I have been saying in Posts that China looked like a Black Swan masquerading as a Dragon.  And, yes, Dragons are dangerous.  But, not being in the SPY model and not feeling my every equity sale should be tied to it, I’ve lightened up considerably,as I informed you.and have  more than 70 % of my funds in cash for deployment.

The big question for me  is….how much blood needs to be in  the street before I begin to buy ?  Reminds me of the time in high school that I caught a fly ball but didn’t know which base to go to with my throw.  Only this time I’m not day dreaming !

The answer for me is…. to recognize how difficult it is to pick market bottoms…..if the present situation persists, and SPY is under water on August 31,  I’ll prune almost all my remaining positions   back to ground level and then wait for SPY to cross its 200 day moving average to the upside before I re-deploy.

Richard Maurice Gore