April 25, 2015
Here I sit, Saturday afternoon, at peace with my year to date Wall Street performance , but nervously speculating on the NFL College Draft which starts Thursday evening. The source of my anxiety is the New York Giants and whom they will chose with their number 9 first round pick.
For me, my preoccupation with the NFL draft is the ” Go Away “. phase of “Play Till May, Then Go Away ” and I want to thank Wall Street for allowing me to sell 70% of my holdings into strength this week..
I am happy to say I’ve out performed SPY from November 1 until now by a score of 5.76% to 4.41%. Of the 5.76% total profit , 85.5% is in my pocket and waiting to be re-deployed. My year runs from November 1 till May 1 and re-starts November 1, unless there are compelling reasons to be invested between May 1 and October 31.
I’ve seen the first two weeks of May wipe out a big chunk of my year to date winnings more than once, so, this year I’d rather take the risk of losing a bit of the upside instead of half my winnings in just a few days, with me in full financial and emotional retreat.. ….even though I do believe strongly this market is headed higher due to macro factors such as relatively low interest rates compared to earnings yields.
While the concept of ” Play till May ” is based on fear, this year it has allowed me calmly to rebuild my cash reserve to allow me to purchase at attractive prices should the opportunity arise after May 1.. If I am wrong. all I’ve lost is some opportunity profit and I’ll re-enter the market after May 15 if conditions are as compellingly positive as they have been until now..
So, at this point, I am alert to a buy point. I am not a seller.
Now, all I need is for the Giants to draft that tackle from Iowa and someone on Wall Street’s crowded balcony to stand up and shout ….FIRE !
Richard Maurice Gore
DISCLAIMER: I do not offer or sell advice, accept deposits, commissions or fees or make any offer to “run” your money or act in your behalf. I am unlicensed. What I do, entirely at your risk, is allow you to peek over my shoulder to see how I go about attempting to earn a living using my own liquid financial assets. These Posts are primarily for me to follow how my thoughts are evolving into strategies that win for me. I still have a lot to learn ! RMG