August 31 Sell Signal Still Good

September 30th, 2015

September 30. 2015

Don’t mess with this SPY timing model.

It signaled  “SELL ” as of the close August 31.

As of the close today, September 30, 2015,  the 200 day moving average of SPY was $204.43. The closing price of SPY was $.191.59,  6.28 % below $204.43  By definition a sell signal.

Are you surprised ?

Take a  look at some background factors.

1- You have Federal Reserve Officials including Janet Yellen publicly vacillating on a decision to raise rates  a miserable quarter percent ( 25 basis points ) even though they know a rate hike is not warranted by an overheating economy and could throw us into a recession. A rate hike and the resultant stronger dollar would help our Euro friends revive their economies via exports to us…at the expense of  exports  by our major international companies.  And that prospect is a ” no sale ” on Wall Street !

2- More and more China is looking like a fragile economy, with a decline in China’s stock market and economic indicators signaling weak buying power. Are you listening  Apple ?  Haven’t heard Carl Ichaan talking about a $200 Apple recently.

3- You have all the maneuverings of Putin and Obama relative to Syria including the threat ( made good ) of Russia directly attacking our Sunni  “friends” ?  . So it looks like Russia is lining up the Shites of Syria and Iran against the Sunnis of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq etc. for a replay of the Iraq / Iran war on a Syrian playing field ( for  starters ) with Putin creating problems that will take our focus off the Ukraine and get revenge for the sanctions.

4- You have a mass of humanity migrating toward Germany and threatening to change the multi national culture of Europe.  Who is hidden in that Trojan horse ?

5 – You have all the Republican players calling each other ( and Obama ) out on how terrible things are.  And, you have Bernie demanding wholesale systemic reform of our political and financial institutions…because our economy is rigged in favor of the 1% ultra rich.

Does this add up to a ” Wall of Worry ” that markets can climb ?  ( even with interest rates as low as ours )….Or is this a “Wall of Uncertainty” that equity markets abhor with a cascading  selloff continuing ?

You be the judge…I don’t have an answer I’m willing to  underwrite with real money. I’m a trend follower….I’ll ride with the SPY 200 day moving average / month end model and wait for a break to the upside before I dive in.  According to Bill Gross ex-guru of PIMCO….no kind of instrument is worth investing in versus the safety of cash at this particular point.

But that doesn’t mean I can’t nibble at ETFs and Stocks which have sold off but which I deem ” worthy ” of investment. Example: chosing worthy pharma stocks and bio ETFs as a reaction to Hillary’s threats and investing in them for their outstanding USA performance and resistance to her  campaign rhetoric.

So who do I like for this type of small investment ( 10 to 15 shares per name ) every time the market sells off another 5% and they remain resistant.


Equities: ORLY…..ALK….FB….BA…..GILD…..

Won’t be back at you till October 31 unless there is a big market moving  development that deserves analysis  and comment

Richard Maurice Gore



About Walter Palmer, Trophy Animal Hunter

September 7th, 2015

September 6, 2015

I know this doesn’t relate to investing and that I should be continuing work on my ” watch list ” of  ETF and equity securities during this ” Sell Signal ” intermission, …..but I can’t.

I don’t work for anyone except myself, so if I want to step up and step out for or against an issue, I will.

I’ve been told by parties interested in me that I’m beginning to overdue the blogging, that nobody is really that interested.  OK, I get it.  I’ll take a break and after this Post I’ll be quiet ..until a ” BUY” signal flashes some month end..

Now to the issue at hand.

I have just read that Walter Palmer gave his first interview, post Cecil,  to the London Daily Mail.

He claims he definitely would not have killed Cecil if he knew he was famous.

He claims that there are some safety issues for his family and that he doesn’t understand the level of humanity it would take to have enmity toward people not involved.

I find this amazing and my first thought is how did this guy get through an accredited dental school.  His brain needs a root canal !

OK Palmer, I get it.  Its OK to kill animals as long as they are not famous.  Its OK to pay to have a lion lured out of  his sanctuary, shoot him with a bow and arrow and then enjoy the thrill and prolonged anticipation of a 40 hour hunt following the blood trail…finally dispatch him, and then cut off his head with which you will pose triumphantly flashing a smile and your white, white teeth. 

I get it.  If its not a famous animal and you have the permits , its all OK!  That’s what you think ?

And about the safety issues for Palmer’s family…  Did you realize that you were condemning Cecil’s cubs to death when you took away  their protector ? Two are dead already…Thanks to you !  That’s OK ?  You probably have nothing to worry about concerning the safety of  your family but you sure as hell do deserve to worry !

Palmer, what I don’t get is why you can’t be satisfied just hunting with a camera and bringing home the beauty and majesty of Africa.  What more is there for you out there that isn’t grounded in a sick brain.

Lots of Americans, including me, have been through the Parks, including Kruger with cameras and we had a great time soaking up the atmosphere of ” the bush” and the encampments .  You have given new meaning to the term ” Ugly American ” and your neighbors in Bloomington, Minnesota should shun you as a pariah for your insensitivity to living creatures.

You’ve brought a shame to your name and on your family that won’t begin to be  be washed away until you,  yes you! ,  perform ongoing service, and I don’t mean money, to put a stop to trophy hunting.

Close your practice and go back to Africa. Work for free in a dental clinic for the local tribes and work to raise orphaned animal cubs.

That is your path to redemption.

Unless you do that, we all will know your only regret is that you were caught .

Richard Maurice Gore



Safe but Anxious !

September 3rd, 2015

September 3, 2015

I keep telling myself I have been through this before, and that I should be feeling very good about having taken so much money off the table after August 17, and before the SELL signal of August 31.

But, I don’t feel very good.  Although I am disinclined to do any day trading, I feel as though I should be doing more strategically to deal with future moves the market makes. I don’t know whether this means only that I  hate  being passive,  or possibly, that I’m beginning to exhibit the symptoms of a degenerate gambler.  I’ll assume the former applies to me, ( until the intervention ).

To rid myself of market anxiety , I’ve decided to do something proactive and positive to while away the time until the next month end BUY signal arrives, ( hopefully October 31 ).  

I would feel very anxious if a BUY signal is received September 30. With October, Halloween  and the prospect of a 100% whipsaw staring me in the face,  I’ve already decided I would absolutely mistrust a September 30 BUY signal.  How’s that for taking the emotion out of investing !

To alleviate my feeling of dread, (even though I have very little at risk ), I’ve decided to invest dribs and drabs every time the prices of a particular equity or ETF  hits a new low, 5% lower than it’s last low. This means if an equity declines a full 50%,  I’d have made 10 drib /drab investments to commemorate every successive  5% downward move in that equity or ETF . With a 25% retracement, I’d have made 5 purchases , and with a 15% decline, just three purchases in an equity or ETF . All this presumably would lower my average cost as the market moves lower with roughly 85% of my money waiting for an ” All In”  deployment at the BUY signal.

I have a strong sense that this activity will, at least , make me feel I am doing something constructive while I wait..

I will add between 10 and 25  shares every time the market price of each of the following ETFs declines a further  5%.


I will add 25 shares every time the market price of each of the following equities declines a further  8%.

AAPL, CVS, HD, ALK, MHK, WBA, ORLY, HCA, FB, GILD, TWX, SWHC.  I know its said to be foolish to average down a losing equity position.  But, these are equities which exhibit all the characteristics of marriage type equities.  I will still be following specific events and can pull the plug on any  if I believe doing so is warranted.

Now for my disclaimer.  I don’t have a licence to give investment advice to anyone(  including myself  ! ) ,  so please don’t consider the above in any way reliable for investment action by you.  The purpose of the this site if for me to find out where and why you think I’m wrong.  So, please feel free to  chime in.

Richard Maurice Gore


SPY Sell Signal

September 1st, 2015

September 1, 2015

After 921 days, for this trade…’s time has come.

SPY  generated a month end SELL signal at yesterday’s close, telling me to get out of the water…..pronto !

This trade was opened as a BUY on December 31, 2011 and has returned 69.02% since then including dividends and distributions according to “ETFreplay” ,  my back testing provider.  That amounts to an average gain of 1.57% per month, or an average of 18.84% per annum.

Not bad pay for watching grass grow and paint dry !

The trade before this, September 30, 2010 ( Buy ) to August 31, 2011 ( Sell ) 232 days returned 8.65%.  Money then spent four months on the sidelines before the December 31, 2011 buy signal was generated.  I will not enter the water again until SPY ends a month with its price above its 2oo day moving price average…..a Buy signal.

Stepping away from this model…..SPY is closing in on a ” death  cross “….the 50 day moving average of it’s price crossing below the 200 day moving average….AND..for those who can remember what the October  market is capable of, October is not far over the horizon….and an interest rate increase could also be bad for stocks….And, all this leaves out the Chinese Dragon / Swan….. ( red body / black tail/ long teeth  ).

On the other hand, interest rates are low and probably will stay low until the Fed sticks it’s foot in the Dragon/ Swan’s s mouth.

Interesting choices for me… nothing and pray my  stomach is strong enough to withstand a plus 50% drop until SPY turns and  comes back. Take half off the table and pray this is only a head fake  Or, do what I am doing ….beaching this sucker !

I’ll spend my time on the beach ( at least until the September 30 close) , researching fixed income alternatives which beat money market rates.

I’ll be in touch.

Richard Maurice Gore

Bernie versus Donald….What versus How.

August 30th, 2015

August 31, 2015

You know from my Post of May 18, 2015,  “An Endorsement for Bernie “I am ready to stand beside Bernie Sanders and declare myself a Democratic Socialist, even though Social Capitalist ( leave no one behind ) is probably a closer description of my leanings.   Today, the label Socialist doesn’t mean nationalizing everything from newspapers to industry.  It means recognizing we still have some roads we need to travel  before everyone feels the playing field is level and everyone has a fair shot at ” The American Dream “.

The problem is that the middle income class ( not to mention the disadvantaged class  ) feels that the playing field is even far less level than before and Congressmen are so totally immersed in becoming millionaires and protecting their seats that Congress  it is incapable of acting to head off a class confrontation down the road.

Enter from stage right and left;  Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.

We all know Trump considers himself “influence”  proof when it comes to billionaire or lobbyist money.  And, we know that Bernie Sanders exudes an air of  totally incorruptibility.  They both seem to be firebrands , anxious to right the systemic ills of our society.

A word about Donald.  He has always impressed me with his energy and his “can do ” attitude.  Yes, he’s beyond conceited and has a fresh mouth. Childish ….yes, Petulant….yes, Feisty….yes, but  I don’t believe he has a mean bone in his body.  That’s why we can laugh at his remarks.  Maybe he doesn’t seem ” Presidential “.  But, I don’t care about his aura if he can get the right things done in a timely fashion.  The country is tired of grid lock!  And, believe me, the situation in Washington is closer to offering the next President a ” Gordian Knot ” to  untie rather than a simple case of gridlock to untangle..

A word about Bernie…The big concern is that he will be unable to change what he wants to change.  The President has less power than one would think.  A lot of his proposed changes would really need to start at a local grassroots level.  Does he have the energy to create waves that will float Congress off its present foundation ?

In my opinion, immigration is not the most important issue facing us.  Build a wall and then start work on reform of existing laws… without delay.

The big issue is how to get Congress to act against itself by un-tieing itself from the purse strings of the ultra wealthy 1%.   I’m talking excessive wealth.  So excessive, that Congressmen and their staffs  are becoming increasingly corrupted by billionaire backed lobbyists and by  financial help being  offered directly …with conditions..   The ultra wealthy are using their wealth to double down on Congress to gain an even bigger edge.

It seems the right wing  billionaire class are not concerned that..

1- 400 families control more wealth than the 150 million American taxpayers who account for the entire bottom half of our national income structure.

2- That in 1965 CEO pay was roughly 21 times that of the average hourly worker.  Today, that multiple has expanded to 231 times.

3- In 1980, getting an education was 500 times less expensive than it is today.

This group fails to see the implications of a 1% society,  pretending the fault lies with those who are jealous of their success.

I suppose its human nature for this Group to suppose they are safe and can ignore history.  This is the 21st century…nothing can happen !

Billionaire financial influence  must be challenged by the introduction of Bills that will force congressmen  to vote against their narrow self interests under the close scrutiny of an aware electorate.

Either Donald or Bernie may very well be the one who will need to confront the lobbyist ooze that is attempting to  seep under every congressional door  and from there  into every nook and cranny in Washington and beyond.

The question is HOW ( specifics ) does Sanders or Trump see himself being able to  free Congress from the tentacles that bind it to the ultra rich. Whoever  has  the best ideas on HOW to do this is the one I would vote for.

Richard Maurice Gore


About Apple

August 25th, 2015

August 25,2015

Apple offers a very clear illustration of the difference between ” specific risk + market risk“…AAPL versus plain “ market risk “… SPY.

They say almost everyone who invests owns AAPL one way or another, either  directly or through a 401K plan or whatever. Spy is almost 4% AAPL. You can count me in AAPL  both  via SPY, and direct share ownership .

Until last week I was asking myself  why I didn’t invest even more in AAPL.  It didn’t take long for the answer to arrive!

The AAPL picture compared to other growth stocks is very compelling.  A PE Ratio of +/- 10, wonderful !…  Price / Earnings to projected growth ( PEG….0.82 ), wonderful !….Free Cash Flow Yield 12.987% versus 2% for the 10 year Treasury, wonderful !….Return on Assets 20.5%, wonderful! ….lots of cash for possible dividend increases, debt pay down and stock repurchases, great !

The problem arises when you consider that all these numbers are based on the past.  But, ” Mr Market”  is more like a sales manager… interested only  in tomorrow’s result.  That’s where the trading price arrives from.  Differing opinions about the future. .  Who is right ?  Who has an edge ?. The risk  is that your opinion about APPL’s future may be incorrect.

In moving from past absolutes to future estimates ….

Q. Just how dependent is AAPL  iPhone sales on China’s growth ?

Q. Taking it one step further, just how dependable is China’s stewardship of its own economy ? Will there be sufficient buyers to meet Apple’s  China and southeast Asia sales and margin  estimates ?

Q What about the emergence of the Chinese smart phone manufacturer XIAOMI, which has announced the introduction of its smart phone to 10 new countries this fall. It has been reported Xiaomi’s Mi3 is almost 60% cheaper than the iPhone 5C …and better,  with a larger, sharper screen and a camera with higher density pixels.  Plus, Xiaomi’s pricing policy promises to be very aggressive in the emerging markets it has targeted.

Just considering the above, how do you think these factors could impact Apple’s numbers going forward.?…Still wonderful ?

The answer, for me,  is to give Apple the respect it deserves by owning some, and then, calculate at what price I want to acquire many more shares.

For me, it means that however much I want to own AAPL, its best to let it come to me and offer me a pitch I can swing at.  It means I should never let AAPL  account for more than 5% of my investment funds  and that I should buy it with a ” margin of safety ” in mind.  For instance, Morningstar says buy AAPL at $80 per share which is 20% off its Fair Value estimate and almost 30  % below this morning’s opening price of $111.07.  After yesterday, I’m not that confident this is impossible!

I am not strong on patience, so I’ll probably own 25 shares just to feel I am not being left behind !

SPY is also priced looking forward, but when you buy SPY you are buying the USA.  Its much easier to own SPY because SPY ‘s future is much easier to predict and the risk is not as compounded by facts you don’t know, you didn’t know.

At present, the yield of the 10 year Treasury is 2.09%.  The forward earnings yield of SPY is 7% ( 1 year out ). Which would you rather own ?

Richard Maurice Gore



Your Choice !

August 24th, 2015

Early AM….August 24, 2015

Awoke to see Dow futures down over 600 points with SPY and Nasdaq down big time as well.

What to do ?!

As many of you know, I am committed to a timing model on SPY.

SPY’s price relative to it’s 200 day moving average ( at month end ) determines how I react to sell offs.

SPY penetrated it’s 200 day moving average support on August 20.

Why wouldn’t I sell SPY ( and stocks acquired in the positive SPY environment ) the day of the crossover instead at month end ?

Here is  back tested data ( Courtesy of ETF Replay )  going back to January 3, 2000.

Sell day of crossover…..60 trades…..14 winners……46 losers.

Sell at Month End……   6 trades………5 winners…….1 loser

No one can deny this sell off has been ferocious.  BUT……..the market has been churning for 7 months and it seemed as though which ever way it broke,up or down,  would be a doozy.  I said in an Archived Post that Apple was my canary in the mine.  But, it still cost me $5,000 to bury my canary !

I have been saying in Posts that China looked like a Black Swan masquerading as a Dragon.  And, yes, Dragons are dangerous.  But, not being in the SPY model and not feeling my every equity sale should be tied to it, I’ve lightened up considerably,as I informed you.and have  more than 70 % of my funds in cash for deployment.

The big question for me  is….how much blood needs to be in  the street before I begin to buy ?  Reminds me of the time in high school that I caught a fly ball but didn’t know which base to go to with my throw.  Only this time I’m not day dreaming !

The answer for me is…. to recognize how difficult it is to pick market bottoms…..if the present situation persists, and SPY is under water on August 31,  I’ll prune almost all my remaining positions   back to ground level and then wait for SPY to cross its 200 day moving average to the upside before I re-deploy.

Richard Maurice Gore




August 17th, 2015

August 17, 2015

My Post August 2….” Black Dragons aren’t dangerous …right ? ”  The answer is they are not dangerous unless the Dragon is really a Black Swan masquerading as a Dragon.  If last week was any indication,  I can swear my hand was pecked  to the tune of about $5,000.  Keep an eye on that Dragon because if China goes, a lot of market value is going with it.

So,  with October just over the horizon and the overall market treading water for the past seven months, with SPY support at $204 and $ 198, I’m continuing to keep a low profile with slim positions across the board and a ready reserve of dollars  to  deploy.  Although I am a bull, I must enter the market at prices that allow me to consider myself sitting pretty.

I don’t have any Chinese investments, nor emerging market Asia investments because of the impact China can have on these economies. China is too opaque for my money.  They , Germany and Japan are attempting to gain an advantage over us by creating or allowing currency disequilibrium to make our exports more expensive to them and their exports to us priced just right.  I can accept this from Germany and Japan because they are attempting to reignite their economies and we see this as ultimately beneficial for our exports.

But, China is a different story.  Their currency manipulation seems more a crisis reaction to mismanagement.  I find it more than a coincidence that Macao is such a prominent site for gambling.  The Chinese love games of chance and it wouldn’t surprise me that their stock market and real estate market is grounded on a bedrock of speculation well beyond our present perception.  This could be the Black Swan for this bull market.

Prediction;  Interest rates will not be increased tomorrow.  The possibility of  additional negative news of an emergency  in China could make the dollar even stronger, trigger a big cap sell off and lead directly to a USA recession.

Richard Maurice Gore


About Iran,

August 13th, 2015

August 13, 2015

Nobody asked me , and since  very few will probably  read this, I thought I’d chime in on the proposed Agreement with Iran, if only to clarify my own thinking..

To me, the whole idea of signing a political  agreement with Iran is a non starter.  Why?….Because Iran is a religious state , not a secular state.

How can the USA believe it can arrive at a ” workable ” political solution with a country run by religious zealots who have never come close to repudiating their assertion that we are the Great Satan.  A country which  refuses to release the few USA hostages it is holding…. as a sign of good faith. That is a “tell” on the eagerness of our government to reach an agreement. … Ridiculous!

We are fooling ourselves if we think in terms of politics. Instead, let’s think in terms of religion. Do you believe  there is any possibility for a religious settlement with a fundamentalist Muslim regime ???

Starting with Abraham, more deaths and killings in history go back to governments run  by  God’s will,  and that trail ends at Iran’s doorstep.

If,  we are the Great Satan, exactly what is binding them to the terms of any agreement made with the devil ???

If an oath made under duress ( sanctions ), is no oath at all, ( Richard II , Peasants Revolt of 1381),  and if,  under their religion, any undertaking is non binding without first invoking the blessings of Allah,  how   can we possibly believe  they will consider themselves  bound by the terms of this  agreement. My  perception is that  their ongoing  purpose will be to deceive and not comply… by any means possible.

Them fooling us is far too big a risk for us to take for whatever short term emotional relief it gives our leaders.  The Israelis understand precisely what’s at stake,  and as close to Iran as they are geographically,  they see less risk to themselves if nothing is done.

And…everything else aside … I don’t have too much faith in our  performance oversight many  thousands of miles away, if we can’t even  keep people off the White House lawn!

No, it seems to me that our government officials will once again misread the situation,  just as they failed to see China and Viet Nam were enemies for two thousand years and that when the chips were down, the Vietnamese felt far more strongly about being Vietnamese than being Communist .. Who among our so called  ” Best and the Brightest ” understood that and took that tack. And, lots of costly perceptions since then including, but not limited to invading Iraq.

Looking back it seems we learn ONLY from our mistakes.  I don’t credit anyone in our present government with a precise understanding of the outcomes. And with the ” flash crash ” penalties of the digital revolution shrinking the world while multiplying the potential for sudden gigantic  loss, I’d rather slow it all down and do nothing…at Iran’s sanction expense.

I truly believe that if we sign this Agreement, Iran’s Ayatollahs will alter their opinion of us.  In their eyes, we shall have evolved from the Great Satan to the Great Stupid Satin.

We need proposals that make us strongly believe we are  safe and we need the hostages thrown in as a sign of good faith and a statement from the head Ayatollah repudiating their assertion we are the Great Satin.  Without that …let’s wait for the sanctions to unseat their religious government and replace it with a secular regime.


Am I missing something ?


Richard Maurice Gore





About Cecil…..

August 5th, 2015

Can’t focus on the market when an outrage like this happens.

Too much talk about legality and not enough talk about morality.  Too much talk about conservation practices and not enough talk about reverence for life. What a beauty he was !

And don’t give me  that crap about misplaced sensitivity to animals while people are suffering.  So, why can’t we worry about both people and animals ?

When I hear Walter Palmer’s explanation about  the” alleged”  illegality of his transgression, as if it were some misunderstanding,  I don’t hear any sympathy whatsoever  for Cecil.  Palmer doesn’t understand what the fuss is all about.  He just doesn’t get it . I want him to get it !

I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if Palmer  had ” experiences”  with little animals when he was a young boy. And, for him,  trophy hunting is a legally safe alternate outlet for other dark impulses within him.  That he needed to shoot Cecil with an arrow so that the kill experience could be prolonged by 40 hours says a great deal more.

Serial killers like BTK need souvenirs to re-live the experience.  So too do trophy hunters.

If I were allowed  to pronounce sentence on Palmer ,  the souvenir I would deliver would be to brand his forehead with a  ” C ” so that for the rest of his life he would be forced to explain and re-explain why he  lured Cecil from the protection of a preserve to a makeshift ” hunting farm ” .


Richard Maurice Gore